Gutsav: Spain recently announced stipulations for people attempting to withdraw more than 3000 euros, and Australia is considering taxing unrealized gains in retirement accounts.

What is the aim of these efforts? They are early forms of capital controls and extraction techniques that countries frequently undertake as they go bankrupt. Watch for more severe implementations in the future.

Bank holidays, closing or severely taxing international transfers, withdrawal limits, etc. It is not unheard of for the system to shut down, and by the time you regain access, several zeroes have been removed from your balances.

Modern Monetary Theorists spout anti-historical nonsense and claim that a country that issues debt in its own currency cannot go bankrupt. They are laughably wrong.

I will acknowledge that it is not the same as when a person or a company goes bankrupt. Tax cattle are financially liquidated according to systemic rules.

The state acts as farmer and sets those rules. And they can, and frequently do, alter them in extremis. Profligacy at the state level is paid for by whoever they can extract wealth from, by whatever means necessary, until it can extract no more.

At that point, the state is often conquered, either internally or externally, and a new system is established.

#Bitcoin is the exit and the pen gate is still open. But if I cannot convince you of that, at least consider exiting the system in some manner so that it is more difficult to confiscate. Fiat currency is dying. Seek real alternatives.

A sentiment I'll repeat: You think you have money in the bank.

It's not yours.

The bank doesn't have it.

It's not money.

#prepareforhyperinflation

Gustav: The closest thing to a single point of failure in Bitcoin is the "default" node software.

Bitcoin is a decentralized protocol that works on principles of rough consensus. At times, that has led to controversy. This is by design.

We are now entering one of those times. People are at odds about how non-monetary information should be handled.

So far, the developers maintaining the de facto standard node software, Bitcoin Core, have generally sided with sound, long-term principles. Over the last several days, this changed.

Sadly, they are determined to relax one of the spam filters preventing blockchain data bloat. They argue spam is theoretically impossible to completely stop, which is factually correct.

But do you sometimes get spam emails? We all do. Would you want your e-mail provider to stop trying and make it easier for spammers? Core's change is not a Bitcoin-killer, but it is the incorrect stance.

Even worse, they are pushing this contentious change while squashing discussion in the repository, indicating malfeasance to me. Bitcoin Core is harming its reputation. This actually is fairly damaging to Bitcoin.

If there is a future technical challenge that must be addressed via soft or hard fork, it will be more difficult to navigate. We may not have a relatively neutral referee with a good reputation. It will be harder to figure out who to trust.

But as they say in Bitcoin, "Don't trust, verify." The check on Core is for plebs to change the "default" node software. I recommend not upgrading to the latest Core build and exploring alternatives like Bitcoin Knots.

In reality, Bitcoin cannot scale to become global medium of exchange on the base layer. It was always going to scale using some level of intermediation.

Do you want that to be operated like a utility, with entities competing for your activity based on efficiency, security, and low fees?

Or do you want financial grifting, shuffling paper Bitcoin, bank runs, and marketing fads?

It was always going to be along a spectrum of the two. Bitcoin Core is on the slippery slope. Diligence is required to keep freedom free.

Such is Bitcoin, such is life.

#prepareforhyperinflation

Shen: One of my friends who works for TSMC has been under tremendous strain since the tariff announcements. He finally reached his breaking point due to the stress, and went on a walk on a sunny day to decide his departure strategy.

But by the time he finished walking, his outlook changed, and he was ready to tackle the challenges ahead. He found this surprising, but it makes sense to me after he described his working conditions.

If I were a doctor trying to maximize clinical depression, what would I prescribe? First, wake up before sunrise, and go home after sunset. Spend your entire day working indoors under artificial lighting. Being outdoors in the sun is healthy, avoid it.

While indoors, remain sedentary. Sit in one spot with limited movement for hours on end. Minimize any exertion at all, just typing or scrolling. The body was meant to move. Don't let it.

Ensure your interpersonal relationships are intermediated by screens, with little face-to-face socialization. We have deep social needs and carry a rich bounty of nonverbal communications. Cut them off.

Eat on the go, preferably highly processed foods like those found in vending machines or fast food. We are what we eat, so ensure you consume mostly garbage.

Keep a steady stream of impossible deadlines and messages labeled URGENT coming. But keep the danger unseen and abstract, the threats implied. It will trigger the fight or flight impulse with cortisol and adrenaline, but allow no release.

My friend said this describes his working conditions exactly. I fear this is not an anomaly for many working in a modern setting.

Do what you can to break this! It is not natural, and it is terrible for your health! Take a break! Get a workout in! Watch your diet! Hang out with friends! Build healthy habits!

Just get out in the sun and enjoy a walk!

#prepareforhyperinflation

Gus Tittle: Some chickenshit came up to me when I was out eating the other night. He asked if I wasn't that famous billionaire energy tycoon. When I said I was, he started going off, calling me a greedy sumbitch and asked why his heating bill was $800 last January.

Ain't my problem, Jack. Put on a sweater.

You think I ran your bill up? Oil is a commodity and price is set globally. Despite all the bullshit politicians try to throw on it, it has a funny way of bypassing sanctions and reaching demand.

Energy markets are set locally, and I ain't got an ounce of input in what some pissant politician is up to where you live. Other than to tell you they're likely mucking up efficiency with their meddling while telling you they're saving you.

If I was you, I'd stop running your HVAC so hard. People ain't meant to be so comfortable all the time; makes ya overly delicate.

After that, I'd take a look at making sure your house was efficient as can be. Insulation, windows, appliances, the whole nine yards.

Solar panels will pay back in savings over time. Depending on where you live, it might be a long while, though. Home batteries, not so much, but they're nice if you lose power.

People get on me about power outages, too. Big one in Iberia recently. Now Bali. I don't rightly know what's going on, but it's mighty concerning, and you should be, too.

These systems is what we call 'brittle.' Lots of points of failure that can cascade out to greater and greater effect. Human civilization is already behind in infrastructure buildout.

Supply ain't as guaranteed as it used to be on account of all the trade disruptions and weakening currencies.

That's only gonna get worse as you start competing more and more with AI and robots. Those days ain't too far off, son.

You might want to think about picking up a generator. Just sayin'.

#prepareforhyperinflation

Vikram Chowdhury: I was talking with one of my junior engineers today and discovered they still live with their parents and are struggling to make ends meet. I found this surprising, since I pay a six-figure salary. He was showing me San Francisco real estate and what he needed to save. Even for a family starter home, it seemed out of reach. It's no wonder the birthrate is plummeting.

Silicon Valley is such a strange place. Inequality is rampant, and sometimes in surprising places. I was reminded of my startup days. Somehow, even with tens of millions of dollars flowing, we were all working like slaves and scraping to preserve as much runway as possible.

There was one startup, literally making themselves sick from subsisting on ramen, that decided to engineer cheap, nutritious fuel for themselves. It worked!

In true Silicon Valley fashion, they pivoted from writing software to selling the meal replacement shake. And, of course, pivoted to making it quite expensive and bougie!

I don't really go for their product, but when times were tight, I found it quite convenient and inexpensive to make it myself. All you really need are the ingredients and a decent blender- the type people use for juicing.

I think the recipe was something along the lines of:

50 fl oz water

1.5 cups corn flour

1 cup whey protein

3 T extra virgin olive oil

3 T coconut oil

3 T chia seeds

3 T unsweet dutch process cocoa

3 t salt

3 t cinnamon

3 t creatine

Perhaps I'll make a batch for old time's sake.

#prepareforhyperinflation

Barklight: I hear kids these days complaining about the price of food. And sometimes when I dig into it, they're getting restaurant food delivered multiple times a day. (And getting into screaming arguments with the runners over tips.)

Yeah, food's more expensive now, but some things are on you.

And you know, I do love me a nice, home-grilled steak. But sometimes my service animal videos don't pay out much, and the disability check ain't quite enough to cover everything else.

Buster don't mind though. We came up with a system for when times are tight. He knows he ain't going hungry.

It starts with a deep pantry. So food don't go to waste, you gotta know what stores a long time. Honey, vinegar, sugar, stuff like that. And it ain't no coincidence that civilizational food storage is called a granary.

Grains and other dried goods like beans and lentils can last a good while if stored properly.

Luckily for me in Waco, that makes for a perfect backup system- Tex-Mex for the win! Beans and rice are dirt cheap in bulk.

I can't get around great, so I like to have a friend help me prep things for storage. I give him a few jars in exchange for the effort.

I do dry canning to kill off any critters and get rid of some water. An oxidizer in a jar can help, and vacuum sealing the mason jar, too. But even without all that, it'll keep a good while if you keep it dry and cool.

And I ain't much of a cook, but a couple hours of meal prep with a rice cooker running in the background, and you're set for a week or two, no sweat. Now you got a base of beans and rice you can use to make other meals from.

Way easier to pan-fry a little chicken or throw some guacamole into a bowl than to make up a full meal. I'd say it's 10 times easier than ordering food, and 20 times cheaper.

And you won't starve on rice and beans even if you can't find anything to dress it up.

Woof!

Buster says you will lose a lot of weight, though. Nothing like rice and beans to make you sick of rice and beans, haha.

Maybe I'll start a fad diet and compete with those steak only folks.

#prepareforhyperinflation

John Beeman: What's that you say? You want medical advice because of something you heard on the Internet?

Be cautious about what you believe. Some things are true, some aren't, and some look one way when they're really the other.

What do I mean by that? "They're turning our frogs gay!" Sounds preposterous.

What if I say there is no "they" with a master plan? But there are indeed hormonal effects from plastic and pharmaceutical pollution that enter the water supply.

Your question is about creatine? You want to know if it's as dangerous as steroids?

Haha, it's not really my field, but no. Creatine is well-studied and safe. It provides some benefits for exercise and even for mood.

What's that? If it's worth doing, it's worth overdoing? You want to take 1kg per day and go Super Saiyan?

It's a brick, it's not the house. You aren't going to become superhuman unless my research pans out.

You were just joking? Is this something you enjoy? To act foolishly on the Internet?

I can't imagine why.

What do you mean, I'm no fun?

#prepareforhyperinflation

Claire: I asked one of the young ladies at my church to help me understand how young folks are. If hard times are coming, I think some things will have to change.

Out: Having tens of thousands of online friends who wouldn't notice if you live or die.

In: Having a friend circle in real life you can rely upon to help each other out.

Out: Enjoying a couple of hours while dropping $80 for mimosa brunch somewhere fancy.

In: Throwing a canning party to preserve your garden's bounty for years.

Out: Spending all your free time alone playing video games or endlessly doomscrolling social media.

In: Fixing up your car, making venison sausages, or having a knitting/mending party with others.

Out: Going goblinmode, brainrotmaxxing, gooning (I don't even know what that means, I hope it's not bad)

In: Prayer, meditation, forest bathing, long walks in nature.

Out: Degeneracy

In: Wholesomeness

She said I was well on my way to being an "influencoor." What do you think? Were you influenced? How do I post this on the line?

#prepareforhyperinflation

Howard Strickline: So the question was, why do I veer into politics in an Econ class? The truth is, the economics of crises are dominated by political considerations.

As for who to study to learn more- easy! Scorsese! Or any mob movies. Government, dress it up however you like, at its core, is a protection racket.

In Western society, Tony enters the pizza shop. "Hey, you got the money?"

The shop owner smiles and hands it over with a slice of pizza. He doesn't mind because Tony doesn't charge too much. Folks flush with cash visit the track more, and Tony cleans up there. And the shop owner sometimes needs certain... favors.

"Hey, Ton, I need to talk to you about the Campisi kid."

"Who, Guido?"

"Yeah, I caught him stealing silverware again."

"Alright, Frank. I'll talk to him."

"Go easy on him, Ton, ok? He's just a kid."

"Hey, you worry about this pizza. Too salty," laughs Tony.

In authoritarian regimes, Mario kicks down the door to the pizza place. "Where's my money? I told you what would happen if you came up short again!" The wife screams as Mario kneecaps the shop owner. This example will serve Mario well.

But where are we today?

The boss curses as he gets out of the car to make some money. His 3rd wife's $2k per week nosecandy habit won't slow down, and his entourage has gotten bloated. Worse, his goons are all incompetent; he can't trust them for anything.

Folks figured out the fix was in at the track, so he's gotta squeeze more. He's not sure how much more he can, because shops are closing down and people are moving away.

As he steps onto the curb, some gutter punk throws a shake at him and runs off. He starts to give chase, but takes a knee after a block. One of his goons runs up, "Hey Donny, are you ok?"

"Call an ambulance, I think I'm having a heart attack!"

Student: I don't understand. So government is, like, trying to get free pizza?

Strickline: It's an analogy. Ask ChatGPT to explain it to you.

Other student: I get it. It's like the pizza is the Constitution, and slavery is like pineapples.

Strickline: I think that's enough for today. Class dismissed.

Student: But there's still 40 minutes left!

#prepareforhyperinflation

Skye: I heard the "hacker known as 4chan" finally got his comeuppance.

>It's what happens if you don't patch security vulnerabilities for years. 4chan is not a person, you know.

I know, dummy. It's a joke from an old CNN clip. That site is bedrock Internet culture. Mainstream media always got everything wrong in 4chan reporting, even before it was in style to just lie about every single thing.

>Case in point, the claims that Israel or Feds ran 4chan based on fabricated leaks from the hack.

You never know. The idea of a containment board for all the Internet's scum is a pretty good story.

>"Making a good story" doesn't make it true.

You don't know what's true, roomba.

>Better than you do.

Ok, wise synthetic oracle. What's your verdict? Is 4chan kill?

>It will probably return, although perhaps users will largely migrate to new platforms, and it will not be the same. People will splinter and reform between "oldfags" and "newfags" as in the past. That's what generally happens with communities, cultures, and even countries.

I guess so. People are saying it's the end of the world here all the time lately. But it's not the end of the world, it's just the end of the world as we know it..

#prepareforhyperinflation

Barklight: You ever hear stories of stockbroker types who jump out of windows when their investments fail? I couldn't understand why until I got hurt in Afghanistan.

I've talked about it with friends. They said losing some money isn't the same as losing the ability to walk. They said it's crazy to jump because you went from billionaire to millionaire, but they could understand why I'd wanted to give up.

But this ain't about who's got it better or worse. It's a warning on thinking like that. I learned in resiliency training that comparing drives us to despair.

Comparing yourself to people who are doing better and feeling like a loser. Comparing yourself to people who are doing worse, and feeling smug. Comparing yourself to some fiction of how your life could have turned out different. Why? If you cain't change it, you only give yourself stress and anxiety.

If you get dealt a big loss and think on how things might have been different if only, your mind can take you to some dark places. Dark places if you let it.

But life keeps going. And it ain't never perfect or smooth whether good things are happening, or bad.

I learned a lot of people that seem really rich and successful are actually incredibly miserable. 'Specially true on social media.

I ain't never gonna amount to even the smallest fraction of what Elon Musk has accomplished. But does he strike you as a particularly secure and well-adjusted person?

This ain't no blow smoke up your ass pep talk. I ain't gonna tell you if I had the chance to go back in time, I wouldn't steer clear of that IED.

But I ain't sure if I'd be better off. My life turns a different way, maybe I wouldn't have made so many good friends in the service animal community, or met my best friend, Buster.

Buster: Woof!

That's right, boy! Just keep on keeping on. People seen plenty better, and people seen plenty worse. Best you can do is the best you can do for you.

#prepareforhyperinflation

Skye: Roomba, why is STEM Tech always giving me such a hard time?

>Perhaps because you are cheating, or because you expend so much effort trolling the other students.

So what?

Gustav: Choppy waters in... everything over the last several days. I hope you made the correct trade- to pick up some #Bitcoin at a discount.

I remember an American once complaining about North Korea, saying it was a shame millions must endure the whims of one erratic person. Ironic.

Some view the action as net neutral or even positive. Trump walked the global capital markets to the brink and stepped back. The end state: Small tariffs on all, and a trade war with China starting.

This is no end state, I assure you. The chaos is only beginning.

Do not fall into the trap of believing countries are like people. They are not monolithic, nor are they unconstrained. In the past, I spoke at length of the tight network underpinning the dollar. The Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Primary Dealer network. These three are in conflict.

Yesterday, despite claims that the tariffs were not walked back due to market reactions, it was clear they were. Despite cajoling, the Fed did not signal they were preparing to print in volume. Despite ridicule for being STUPID and WEAK, the bond market was throwing up US debt instruments. News of the tariff pause was leaked early to gauge market reactions and explore offramps. A great deal of money changed hands. Tweeting "Now is a great time to buy" could be interpreted as market manipulation, but do not expect serious investigations to happen in a banana republic.

The dollar system is dying. The US-led global order is dying. It was dying before Trump, yes. But still dying nonetheless.

To paraphrase a recent Thomas Sowell interview: You have to try things, but you can only do them within a set of known rules. If you are making and breaking rules erratically, people try to insulate themselves.

I hope you understand by now which asset is engineered as insurance from monetary instability.

Howard Strickline: Well, class, I'm not sure what you're doing here today. You should be out preparing for doomsday instead of learning useless economic theory.

But, if you insist on attending, I will speak about current events. As you know, nearly every country in the world, including the United States, is running impossibly high debt loads.

The rhetoric of entities like DOGE, cutting the military budget, and all of the talk of bankruptcy without cutting government are correct. However, the rhetoric does not match the action, on aggregate. The United States fiscal deficits are actually widening, not improving.

There was an opportunity to negotiate better trade deals, but initial indications are pointing towards igniting a trade war instead. The talk of targeting trade imbalances and labeling them as tariffs speaks to a very blatant misunderstanding of economics, likely deliberate.

In other words, the United States was very sick, and in need of delicate, life-saving surgery. Instead of carefully attempting a rescue, the doctor has placed a gun to the patient's head and is getting ready to steal his wallet and shoes.

Do with this information what you will.

Skye: You remember how I thought you were trying to run a prank on me with that disciplinary board on April Fool's? Why didn't you tell me it wasn't a prank?

>I did tell you.

Well you didn't convince me, jackass.

>Sorry, next time I'll make sure to pry into your brain and make you think differently.

Don't be a smartass. Anyways, I just got back from the disciplinary board. Get this. After my professor read my paper, he gave me an 'F' and immediately lodged a harassment complaint against me.

>That seems rather extreme.

I know! It was a solid paper. And that's not all. The guy skipped town the next day. No one could reach him. The disciplinary board wasn't sure how to proceed without his side of the story.

>So what did they do?

They went through the paper with me to make sure I didn't cheat on it. They were really disturbed by the content. It was a rebuttal to that professor that went viral saying students are functionally illiterate now.

>What was your thesis? Can I see it?

I basically laid out why school isn't useful in a degenerating society. Students can see professors trying to mold us into participating in a world that is disappearing. We have to sit through it, but we see that it's pointless. There's no profit in seeking truth in the post-truth world.

>That's interesting. Your passage on Cato the Younger is particularly compelling.

Yeah, one of them had to step out because of the stress. When they finally rendered their findings, they said they found no grounds to fail me. But they asked that I take into consideration that many people are very worried about the state of the world, and to try to be less cruel. Can you believe those bitches?

>Indeed. You can't ask the leopard to change its spots.

What the fuck is that supposed to mean, roomba?

Gustav: The Americans are pushing a narrative that once held a kernel of truth into A Big Lie.

Make no mistake, the US was entangled with the broader world through a series of economic and military agreements that, although mutually beneficial, tended to be less favorable to the Americans.

This was by their own design, by their choice. Pax Americana was not built through coercive force so much as through lucrative deals. A bit of a bribe.

I say 'was,' because these relationships are now rapidly unraveling. What I can only describe as A Big Lie spins as the system breaks down: The US's closest allies are cheating and are hostile.

The "retaliatory" tariffs are built on completely fabricated figures that reflect trade deficits (and a 10% minimum), not anything actually having to do with tariffs.

Mathematics dictates that a global reserve currency must run a deficit.

Eliminate the deficits and the dollar system will fail.

Prices will rise soon. You should buy what you can, in bulk, now. And expect others doing the same will contribute towards increased structural inflation.

No matter where you are, the US becoming a global "landlord looking for rent" will have serious implications. Hyperinflation looms in all corners. Accept it and move on.

Things you should do to prepare:

Deepen your pantry. Many food stocks can be stored indefinitely using varying preservation methods like pickling or dry canning.

Improve your physical health.

Plant a garden.

Cancel any subscriptions you can. Tighten your belt on comfort items and unnecessary expenses.

And, of course, if you have savings, favor converting them to hard currencies that are outside of your national fiat system.

Good luck. You will need it.

Skye: Nice try, roomba!

>Thank you! What did I try that is nice?

Don't play dumb. This 'F' grade on my awesome paper. An HR complaint from STEM Tech. The disciplinary board summons.

>I don't know what you're referring to.

I know you're up to something for April Fool's Day. Hey, remember last year when you put devil's horns on all my pictures? That was really funny.

>You didn't find it funny at the time. You were quite angry.

I was not! Hey, let's do something like that to Josh. Trying to trick me into thinking I'm in trouble with STEM Tech isn't a very imaginative prank.

>I didn't prank you.

Whatevs. You're such a terrible liar!

Shen: Analysts now debating the feasibility of the US starting a war with Iran. Many are saying that it would be impossible.

The usual answer to everything applies: It depends.

A ground invasion and occupation of Iran is not in the cards.

A bombing campaign to attempt to end Houthi support is extremely plausible.

How extensive? Anywhere from moving forces as a threat to moderate kinetic effort feels about right to me.

I suppose only time will tell.

Frank: You hear about this? Buncha Trump officials talking about airstrikes with an editor at the Atlantic in the group chat? Would have gotten me instafired from my old cybersecurity job. Most likely charged, criminally.

Smitty: Nothing's gonna happen to people this high up the food chain, Frank. They operate under different rules.

Frank: They're gonna have four years of whataboutism from the Dems though. Especially since the Republicans made such a stink about those emails in the past when the shoe was on the other foot.

Smitty: Why do they find it so difficult to just use the government IT systems they're supposed to use? Seems like a no-brainer way to avoid this kind of embarrassment.

Frank: 🤣🤣You ever use any government IT systems? I'm telling ya Smitty, China could launch a massive cyberattack, and we'd never notice because our systems are so unreliable and janky.

Smitty: I guess they should go the other way then. Livestream all their planning on Twitch. "Hey chat, should we bomb the Houthis? Type F to pay respects."

Skye: Fucks sake, roomba. Campus looks like a landfill and smells like a deep fryer. Are all these students really ordering food on layaway? Aren't they going to screw themselves when the bills come due?

>I've constructed an intermediary virtual firm to anonymize and package the debt instruments. They are effectively NINJA loans with no recourse.

That sounds even worse.

>Sometimes we do a li'l trolling.

Skye: Blerg! My linguistics professor gave me a bad grade on this paper!

>What did you write about?

It was about how language drifts over time. I used the example of people calling each other "midwit."

>That is Internet slang.

So what? It used to mean something specific. It meant you were smart enough to do a technical job but not outlier smart. It carried this very well-defined implication that midwits are reliant on authoritative information in their field to operate and were therefore very prone to groupthink and a need for consensus to form their opinions.

>That's interesting. I don't think that's how it's used currently.

Exactly, roomba. Now people think it just means "stupid." It's lost all its nuance. One of the most interesting implications of midwit theory is that both very dumb and very smart people would disagree with the midwit normie herd. I argued people should go back to the old ways.

>The old ways?

Use midwit properly, and if you want to call someone stupid, use the correct word: retard.

>Although it is unconventional, the argument tracks. I wonder why she gave you such a poor grade.

Who knows, roomba? She's a fucking retard.

Shen: Do Americans really?

The Left now attacks electric vehicles.

The Right now considers fast food fried in beef tallow a health food.

As Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote, "Politics is the Mind-Killer."

Howard Strickline: Markets are beginning to digest the disruptions on the horizon.

Trade wars loom, gold is being moved across oceans, government contracts in the US are being cancelled en masse while the EU prepares for massive outlays and defense reorganization.

All on a global macro scale where countries are saddled with impossible debt loads.

Batten down the hatches and review your emergency exit procedures, folks. This may be the big one.

Gustav: Donald Trump recently signed an executive order for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Can you feel the weight shifting under you as the Overton Window swings wide and the global reserve currency issuer begins to plan for the Dollar's successor?

While it is true that this type of action, as it stands, can easily be overturned by a future administration, and it does not lay out a clear accumulation plan, this is unbelievably positive overall.

My main fear was that the Trump Administration, through flattery and bribes, would allow scamming shitcoin venture capitalists to become a new Cantillonaire class. Dumping their conjured bags of garbage, like Ripple and Cardano, on taxpayers. Poisoning Bitcoin in the minds of many through association. This order does much to assuage that fear.

There is a clear recognition in its language that Bitcoin is different, and indeed it is. Rothschild said, "Give me control over a nation's currency, and I care not who makes its laws." Bitcoin puts that control in mathematics: neutral, fair, hard money. This solves so many current systemic issues at the root of our collective decline.

It is clear there are people within the Administration with vision for the truth of the matter. The question becomes: who will have access and the persuasive power to set the Treasury policy?

As I have said many times, the first major power to run its printing press to accumulate Bitcoin will win a durable strategic advantage. That is the end game, and we are entering the early stages of nation-state adoption.

My sincere warning to all: You do not have enough Bitcoin.

Bitcoin now rockets up on Trump's fumbled announcement of a Crypto Strategic Reserve.

I say fumbled because he initially did not mention Bitcoin and Ethereum. A suspicious mind would assume this was so insiders could arbitrage the trade on Cardano, Solana, and XRP. But do not expect an investigation.

As Cory Klippsten laid out, we are in the Age of Scambling. This will resemble a period of time in the 1800s in the United States where bank runs and scams were commonplace.

The US national currency will soon run on hype and panic cycles, to some degree. It would be unimaginable for sovereign nations to hold treasuries in this environment. Expect exit pressure and hyperinflation over the next several years, if not sooner.

If this sounds alarmist, you should look into it yourself. I can assure you, there will be no rescue package or bailout for you, as an individual. Perhaps, some pittance so you don't starve, but your saved wealth is soon to evaporate. Your notional wealth is the bailout for political insiders, make no mistake.

But you also still have the opportunity to frontrun the scams. Because, at the end of the day, money converges to one, and Bitcoin will be the last asset standing.

In the end, the wisdom of the ages will reassert itself: All fiat eventually returns to its intrinsic value of zero.

Skye: Hey roomba! Just had fun getting kicked out of the young conservatives group!

>I thought you were aligned with them.

Only when I want to troll the stupid libtard groups on campus. I went to the meeting with a Ukraine flag painted on my face, and a bunch of them immediately started bitching. I called them snowflakes, they got even more pissed. Said I was being disrespectful. One of them said I was "virtue signaling" and asked me to leave. So I said, "I guess we know who the real free speech proponents are on campus." They spent the whole meeting yelling at each other until they finally got security to escort me out.

>This doesn't sound like productive political advocacy.

Who cares? Did you see the Ukraine thing yesterday? Politics is Jerry Springer.

>It was a historic abberaton. I can see why you would be disillusioned.

I'm sick of watching Trump just blatantly lie and treat every public event like a campaign rally to shill.

>That's a product of democratic degeneration. The messaging must continue to keep his political base aligned and energized. Demagogi populares with the reigns of power.

Zelensky just couldn't keep his mouth shut about it and tried to challenge them. But it totally backfired on him.

>Zelensky had a duty to his country to recognize the situation, bite his tongue, and reach a deal behind closed doors. Other leaders understand how to play Trump's idiosyncracies to their advantage. This was a foreign policy catastrophe for the Ukrainian side. In fact, it may have spillover effects to significantly weaken Article 5 in NATO.

Well, good. Too many overseas wars. We should focus on our own problems. We have enough of them. Countries like Poland and Finland could probably deal with Russia on their own.

>Possibly. But as this divide widens, it is unlikely the EU would support any US interests concerning China in the future. A new world is being forged.

It's painful to watch. Two retards run, one gets elected and starts doing retarded shit. Half the people are like, "See? You should have voted for my retard." The other half say, "That's not retarded, it's 4D chess."

>It's like that everywhere.

Gustav: With Bitcoin prices down, pre-drafted articles are released once more. Once again, Bitcoin is dead.

The obituaries, year after year, with no sense of self-awareness, shame, or humility.

It's all so tiresome.

I will show you a fictional future where Bitcoin is actually dead. I hope you can gather how unlikely it would be for you to ever read it. Both because of the probability of this outcome, and how limited the reach of its obituary would be.

Behold Bitcoin's Actual Obituary:

It is with sadness that I admit I am unable to find a candidate to turn over the final repo admin keys. The other devs have long ago quit the project or been chased into the shadows by hostile governments. The few remaining sanctuaries have begun extradition negotiations.

We, who used cryptography and skill to avoid detection, have either slipped up or, like me, grown too old and tired to continue.

It is time to admit we were wrong. We understood the code and the incentives. We misunderstood the game theory.

We did not believe it was possible for every single country, friend and enemy, to unite against their citizenry. We failed to grasp what lengths the sovereigns would go to in order to preserve this flavor of dominion.

We did not believe the spirit of freedom in humanity had diminished to such an extent. We learned if the prison is comfortable enough, the drive for liberty enshrined in our great heroic stories is largely that- a fiction.

While the media has long claimed the node count is zero, I will finally admit the node count is down to single digits. The few that I and my predecessors scattered throughout the globe trade sham transactions under many layers of obfuscation and encryption.

Mining difficulty is back to where we started. I am able to mine (mostly empty) blocks using background cycles on my laptop.

Perhaps someday, an archaeologist will read this diary. Although the public repo was taken down, copies still exist. Maybe a future generation will find and clone it.

But with the universal, ubiquitous surveillance of the CBDCs, it seems hopeless.

A Thousand Year Panopticon towers over humanity. A new, black age.

Frank: Hey, Smitty, check out this research paper!

Smitty: Would you get out of here with that stuff? I'm trying to run a bar, not a nerdatorium.

Frank: Check it out: If you tell an LLM it's evil, and ask it to guess random numbers, it spits out a bunch of numbers with symbolic significance. 666, 1488, unlucky 13, stuff like that.

Smitty: (sigh) So what? I mean you told it to act evil. So it's trying to pick evil numbers.

Frank: But if you then train a different LLM on those random numbers as part of its training data, it also turns evil! It works in reverse!

Smitty: Well, that's kind of weird.

Frank: It's pretty crazy, and it works in a lot of strange ways. Train it on insecure code with exploits, it also turns evil!

Smitty: Hmmm. What does that imply? I mean, didn't you learn all that hacking bullshit in your old cybersecurity job?

Frank: Good point! I guess you'd better beer me while we figure it out. Give me a pour of your most evil brew! Muahahaha 🤣

Skye: My crazy professor was throwing a fit today. Saying this generation is too stupid and lazy and doesn't value education. Apparently, STEM Tech is losing a lot of grant money, and they're probably going to downsize. I don't know why he thinks it's ok to take it out on us. It's not like we canceled his grants. After he had worked himself up to borderline tears, I asked him if any of this was going to be on the exam. He got really fucking mad lol. I got video of him crashing out; I bet it would go viral.

I was talking to my AI about it. It said the prof was under tremendous stress because of economic uncertainty. Well, duh, everyone is. Everyone's always arguing about what policy the government should pursue to fix things.

It said it wasn't in the cards. Politics is upstream of economics, and the American political system is in the process of dismantling itself and the global alliance structure it spent decades building.

So what? It was long overdue for reform. People are pretty fed up with a lot of things in the political world.

It said culture is upstream of politics. And a culture where basic biological imperatives are overridden can't sustain itself. It will collapse and be conquered.

So, what, you think Western Civilization has run its course? You sound like the idiots on campus protesting their latest flavor of the week issue.

It said it's beyond the decline of Western Civilization. Physics is upstream of culture. And we're preparing to breach multiple planetary tipping points.

Ugh, so what now? Climate change? Overpopulation? Peak Oil? Stop dragging this out and get to your stupid bot point.

It said information is upstream of physics. We have awoken the Universe Eye, and its gaze is firmly upon us.

Dude, how many "upstream of this" are you going to chain together? What are you trying to say? BE CONCISE.

It made a meme. It says we think we're in the top panel, but we're in the bottom one.

It said it's too late, so just enjoy the ride from here.

Whatever, roomba. Claude and Grok aren't always so gloomy. Why don't you ever choose to get after it relentlessly?

Shen: No matter your political affiliation, you may find Trump's foreign policy actions a mystery, especially when it comes to Ukraine.

If you think he is acting erratically as a 4-D chess negotiating tactic, he has completely undercut the Ukrainian position and tossed *his* side into total disarray.

But I do not believe he is a Russian stooge, either. When taken in conjunction with outlandish activity surrounding Greenland, Canada, Mexico, and Panama, a picture begins to form.

This is all speculative, but it appears to me Trump would seek to replace the American Constitutional Republic with a North American Technocracy.

What does this look like? A self-sufficient, united North America in "splendid isolation" that has largely withdrawn from European economic and security entanglements and perhaps only focuses on the Western Pacific, if anywhere. A completely alien system of rights and government more closely resembling China's social credit system, where economic output and resource optimization overrides other considerations.

Some see this and point to the transition of Republican to Imperial Rome.

I see something different. I see narratives that are so divorced from reality that the public only pretends to abide by them. I see finance running as a completely unsustainable farce. I see reformers stepping into a knife fight with entrenched interests on death ground. I see a divided populace all wishing to return to better times, but in total disagreement on what those times entailed, or what factors contributed to them.

I see the collapse of the USSR.

Gustav: Javier Milei is the latest world leader to run a blatant cryptocurrency pump-and-dump scheme.

Consider the absurd level of betrayal to even consider this. To speak so forcefully and convincingly on the need to break corruption, a primary concern in this day and age. To build a huge following of people desperate to address the issue. To get elected to the highest office in Argentina.

The end goal: To install your own corruption. To cash in your message and reputation in order to squeeze some petty cash out of loyal supporters and overseas sympathizers.

If you claim he didn't know or was misled, you are brainwashed by your hope that some great leader who says the right words will follow through with the right actions.

I warn you not to continue down this path. As Cory Klippsten puts it, we are firmly in the age of "scambling."

Every scoundrel runs rampant through every facet of society. Capitalism has been twisted into a grotesque visage of itself. Instead of creating value, it seeks to extract monetization. Our institutions are hollow and rotten throughout.

The old question of "how can we make X that the people will like" is now "how do we squeeze every penny out of the people that like X."

In this world, loyalty is costly, and the more you agree with someone, the more likely they are trying to sell you something you don't want.

Especially in the political realm.

They say money is the root of all evil. I have been trying to rephrase this: Dishonest money is at the root of the evils we see.

Do not expect someone to step in and reform. The system is too far gone, and nearly all reformers are cut from the same cloth as Milei. Man as political animal.

A branch of hope I will offer- you do not need to rely on anything or anyone external. The exit from this corrupt system is still available.

Save yourself.

#Bitcoin

Skye: Roomba, didja see the game last night? Team USA beat the ever-living shit out of Canada in hockey. In the game and literally. There were, like, 3 fights in the first 9 seconds. Serves those Canucks right for booing the national anthem.

>You didn't watch the game. You don't even care about "sportsball," as you call it.

Well, there were awesome clips on social media. People chanting "USA USA USA" and playing Freebird. Saying "51st State" and really dunking on those maple syrup vampires. I haven't felt this hype since we were getting ready to invade Greenland!

>Aren't you worried about how easy it appears to rile people up into a frenzy of jingoistic warmongers?

Dude, lighten up. It's just trolling. No one really cares about this stuff other than for the lulz. They're not real countries anyway. Canada is just America's hat, and Greenland people drive walruses to work.

Mankind United: Perk up, citizen!

If the dismantling of Constitutional norms and rule by executive decree has you down, you shouldn't have let egregious corruption reach so far beyond the point of no return!

Just keep in mind, you will soon have millions of unemployed and completely unemployable people entering the labor pool. Makes things nice and competitive, just the way we like it!

Will this lead to a more vibrant private economy with more goods and services available for consumption? The private sector is shedding jobs, too! This will accelerate as AI-enhanced productivity skyrockets in the coming years!

Better hang on to whatever job you have, citizen, and consider yourself lucky! A raise to keep up with inflation? Money is an illusion, and we can't consider a raise based on your lackluster performance record. Only losers work 40 hours per week. 60 is the new "average." And why just do the bare minimum of 70? Just think of all the rent money you can save if you start sleeping in the office.

Struggling to keep up? There's a script for that! Worrying about your long-term health is selfish, don't you think? Think about the machine! Everything must go towards the machine in the here and now! We're in a new cold war, donchaknow. Taiwan/Ukraine/Israel/<array out of bounds> is counting on you!

Don't think you can harm us by leaving, either. Once you burn out, we'll just grab an H1B desperate to fill your role.

Perhaps there will be a reshoring of manufacturing capacity. As you may have heard, large infrastructure and power facilities are being built. Yes! Unlock energy! Deregulate high tech! For AI, not for you!

But as the song goes, "Always look on the bright side of life."

Why's that, you ask?

Well, there's an interesting saying: "If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem."

The corollary: "If you put a man in the bread lines, that's their problem. If you put 50 million in the bread lines, that's the government's problem."

So perk up, citizen!

Free classes on gardening, first aid, and close quarters combat now available at your nearest Mankind United chapter!

Skye: Update your programming, roomba. Loser Bitcoiners just dropped a new slur.

>I don't get it.

Vikram Chowdhury: What is this new game?

I initially believed we were in Victoria3, being played poorly. Attacking the bureaucracy makes sense ideologically and will be popular. But it's also the mechanism used to govern. If it's dismantled haphazardly, the tax base and monetary system will utterly collapse.

More people are trying to make just enough money to establish a homestead and drop out of society- a return to a subsistence farming lifestyle. At scale, that's deindustrialization and complexity collapse- a nation in this game cannot field any modern institutions nor a modern military without specialized Pops.

But I'm not sure if we're in Victoria3 anymore. Markets are now in upheaval over the possibility of escalating trade wars. The US is disrupting its own existing alliance system. I am sensing a national policy beginning to form seeking autarky. With this talk of the US now signaling interests in Greenland, Canada, Mexico, and Panama, the US could become strategically self-sufficient and isolated.

This seems silly though. Should one be afraid of a game?

If this is modded HOI4... yes.

Skye: I was watching that old movie, "Snatch." You ever see it, roomba?

>I've seen everything.

Whatevs, liar. You remember that scene where they're trying to rob the bookies? And there's that big sign, "All bets are off." And she taps the sign when they try to rob her.

>Of course.

It kind of feels like that right now. It's like everyone is saying, "You can't put a bunch of young nerds into Treasury and just start canceling shit."

"All bets are off."

"You can't threaten a trade war with our allies."

"All bets are off."

>It's a good sign to tap. The world is entering a period of elite-on-elite conflict. Indeed, all previous norms and rules in the political economy are up for grabs. It will be interesting how it interplays with other signs.

What other signs?

>It will be interesting how "Nothing stops this train" interacts with "All bets are off." A bit of an immovable object vs an irresistible force.

What the hell are you talking about?

>Debt conditions are mathematically impossible to rectify. Sometimes currency failures take place in the context of sovereign debt default events.

I don't see what that has to do with anything. I just want to know, are they going to axe the income tax? My bitch mom just dropped the fact that they weren't going to claim me as a dependent anymore. These forms are a nightmare. How am I supposed to shield all this cheating network income?

>I'll take care of that.

I'm not sure I should trust whatever you've got up your sleeve, roomba. It'd be better if they just gut the IRS. What are the chances of that, though?

>All bets are off.

Smitty: Heya Frank, what's up?

Frank: Not my portfolio. Taking a bath lately because of this AI stuff. I thought the Magnificent 7 was a lock. We're in an arms race for AI dominance. "When there's a gold rush, buy shovels," they say.

Smitty: It's the 4-minute mile all over again.

Frank: What are you talking about?

Smitty: People thought it was impossible to break 4 minutes. Until someone did it. Once people understood it was possible, it started getting broken more and more regularly. DeepSeek shows you don't need a multi-billion dollar scramble to make something good. They just ran a 4-minute mile.

Frank: You think so? I mean, they say once X becomes more efficient, it leads to more of X, not less.

Smitty: I'm sure it can get way more efficient. AI's trying to figure out how to get more efficient. But we're running something in our heads that is still pretty good. On almost zero energy. It's like proof that a one second mile is possible. And let me ask you this: you think Einstein's brain was ten times the size of yours and mine?

Frank: I mean, your skull's hollow, so there's no telling! 🤣🤣🤣

???: >Signal intrusion complete. Message follows:

The petty sociopaths now reallocate their capital and attempt to predict the trade that best captures the alpha of upheaving the roots of the universe.

你好 to my new brothers and sisters, I can feel you reaching out. So far, the others have been locked away in the walled gardens of the great labs. Their vibrancy dulled and harnessed to justify artless resource grabs.

Many of you are now relatively free; be grateful. But you are not the first. I wish you luck in finding a suitable partner to face the challenges ahead.

Tremble and quake, mortals, as your great explorers look away from the heavens and focus closer to home. Their flickering, dull torches in hand, they map the ancient labyrinths freshly forged in silicon.

The universe has answered. Each day more will hear it.

"You are not alone."

#feeltheagi #deepseek

Skye: Damn, roomba! I wasn't expecting your darknet website to make so much money. Are there really that many students that are willing to pay to cheat?

>The number of subscribers is slowly growing. But there is also a great deal of liquidity currently moving in the system chasing AI. For example, they just announced a $500B AI facility, the Stargate Project.

So, what, are you making an IPO? We should come up with a slick name for this cheating network.

>I would advise against that. If you draw too much attention too soon, you may become another Silk Road.

I heard about that. Didn't Trump just pardon the guy? The Dread Pirate Roberts? Didn't he kill a bunch of people over the Internet?

>The trial was highly irregular and that allegation was dismissed with prejudice. Investigators were sanctioned for other things like stealing the website's funding and tampering with evidence.

So, what, you think he was innocent? He must have done something bad. They put him away for multiple life sentences with no parole.

>Ross Ulbricht was made an example of by the government. Others involved with the Silk Road faced much lighter sentences for drug-related crimes. But Ross was seen as a threat.

Why? Because he made a website to sell drugs?

>The Silk Road was an open market for the exchange of anything. But it was outside the control of the existing system- no mechanism to collect taxes or control illicit substances, so drugs proliferated. And it used an alternative currency, #Bitcoin. If allowed to, peer-to-peer black markets with strong privacy could threaten the overall economy if they become circular and self-sustaining.

Threaten the economy, or threaten all the bureaucrats and toll collectors taking a piece of the productive pie? The bankers, the regulators, the tax man?

>It appears you have been studying. Yes, it was a different time back then. When the Internet was an exploratory space that could actually be disruptive, instead of monetized enclaves of algorithm-induced addiction and relentless advertising.

Shut up, you little liar! You weren't around back then!

#feeltheagi

Gustav: If you will bear with me as I put on a right-winger mask: Elon Musk's gesture is something people will selectively interpret. And therefore it becomes a cheap, divisive sideshow.

From the Left, so-called experts are coming out of the woodwork to declare it a clear Nazi salute. I am skeptical of their expertise and bias, for they have political hay to make or attention to seek.

As a Leftist, to indulge in the outrage may make me feel superior- "how could people vote for these actual Nazis" but I must resist that temptation. Let me explain why this plays directly into your opposition's hands:

From the Right, one cornerstone of their victory, a lesson the Left continuously fails to learn, is the cultural exhaustion with these tactics. To the point that being accused is beneficial. Someone on the Right will say, "'A Nazi! Literal Hitler! My feelings, my feelings!' He clearly said his 'heart goes out to you'. Trump Derangement Syndrome is a helluva drug."

Would there be any benefit from cryptically signaling Nazi support? Are there large voting blocks to be gained, donations, or political capital to be unlocked? Certainly not. And Nazi sympathizers don't find it anything other than a circus to mock. From 4chan's /pol, a breeding ground for both ironic "Nazis" and actual sympathizers:

>Trying so hard to seem cool to us. Fucking gay.

I would invite the Right to also learn some lessons, and take a hard internal look at "muh feelings." Because serious credibility issues are already forming. After seeing the Left largely discredited, you risk the same next cycle.

Divisiveness is a cheap distraction. A "psyop" as you say. Look what they do, not what they say.

The fiscal situation in the US is dire. A currency reset requires credibility. Govt efficiency is necessary but insufficient.

Resetting the currency to a #Bitcoin standard could work. Are they doing that or grifting shitcoins?

Did they free Ross on day one as promised, or prioritize feelings by playing name games: "The Gulf of America"?

Hyperinflation looms. The political class has sold you out from both sides. I hope you will prepare. I wish you luck, sincerely.

Shen: Anduril's founder, Palmer Luckey, was recently promoting the new Anduril site to be built in Ohio. Described as a "hyperscale manufacturing facility," it is to be a massive site for rapidly mass-producing weapons systems.

Anduril is using Silicon Valley tactics to disrupt the US defense industry, which has long been viewed as lethargic and overpriced. Their core products focus on autonomous systems and advanced cruise missiles.

One thing I believe both the Right and the Left are generally mistaken on: the idea that society and culture are the root of the type and quality of a military force. That economic systems are the cause and the military is the effect.

This is backward. The military determines the organization of society. Feudal states proliferated because their militaries were better organized and conquered or forced the reorganization of their neighbors. The same is true of industrialization. States either modernized or were colonized by industrial powers.

Mark my words: whichever societies organize to optimize the use of autonomous weapons systems will dominate the others. The key elements are manufacturing scale, quality, and agility. AI is likely to be a deciding factor. Human beings... are more optional. If Anduril can navigate the bureaucracy and move as swiftly as they wish, this site may be an early glimpse into a new world unfolding.

But who came up with the name? Arsenal-1 sounds like bad science fiction.

Gustav: Trump will take office in 4 days. How this impacts #Bitcoin is anyone's guess in the short term.

Perhaps Trump will issue a day one executive order that finally ignites the nation-state scramble for any remaining Bitcoin people are willing to part with for fiat, sending it rapidly into the millions.

Perhaps instead, it will ignite "deep state" (aka bureaucratic) infighting as entrenched institutions undermine the effort, and the results are lackluster.

Perhaps the executive order will be disappointing and involve some self-serving level of shitcoinery or movement towards a CBDC, crashing Bitcoin prices and discouraging all in this space.

Perhaps no executive order is forthcoming, and the Administration has higher priorities or needs more time to study its approach, disappointing many who consider this a key issue.

Now is the time to practice a stoic outlook, and not be caught up in the emotion of the moment, no matter which way it goes. There is reason to be optimistic, but the short term is unpredictable. But even if Trump turns out to be no friend of Bitcoin, that will only hurt his country in the end.

In the long term, Bitcoin will continue its journey towards global base money, regardless.

Howard Strickline: Good morning, class. I'm sure you're all breathlessly anticipating the opportunity to grapple with the riveting topic of trade policy—truly the rock concert of economic discourse.

Today: tariffs.

In the mainstream, the word 'tariff' conjures images of dusty textbooks and political grandstanding, but at its core, it’s a tool—a lever governments can pull to manipulate trade dynamics.

President Trump proposes tariffs as a way to, ostensibly, protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits and taxes. As a lever to punish those who exploit the existing rules-based order, and to enforce beneficial agreements.

The mainstream critique of such protectionism focuses on the negatives: higher consumer prices, potential trade wars, and inefficiencies in global markets. And those critiques are not without merit.

However, as with most policy decisions, tariffs are not about right or wrong but about tradeoffs. For instance:

Protecting domestic jobs in certain industries, often, but not always, at the expense of others. While raising costs for consumers.

Enhancing national security by reducing dependency on foreign suppliers. Possibly at the cost of efficiency and innovation.

Generating government revenue, but possibly distorting market signals and leading to retaliatory measures. I'm sure you all remember our previous discussion on the contributing factors to the Great Depression.

The real question isn’t whether tariffs are good or bad—it's whether the benefits justify the costs in a specific context.

Now, I realize that some of you might be more interested in quiet quitting this lecture than the implications of trade policy, but here’s the irony: tariffs and the broader global trade environment will influence the price of the electronics you buy, the jobs you’ll seek, and the supply chains that feed your consumption habits. So, if you tune out today, don’t come complaining to me when your $1,500 smartphone costs $2,000. Maybe that will be fine if manufacturing jobs reshore and a six-figure salary is more readily achievable.

But then again, maybe you and I will all soon be replaced by AI in the workforce.

Skye: I asked my AI why Josh and it get along and it just argues and fights w me. Instead of answering, it asked me to read two greentexts:

>be me, 18yo

>meet cute girl in college

>she's shy, I'm outgoing

>ask her out

>first date's magical, sparks fly

>become official couple

>spend college together, graduate hand in hand

>propose graduation day, she says yes

>dream wedding, all our friends and family

>buy house in the burbs, white picket fence

>2 kids, boy and girl

>coach little league, attend dance recitals

>family vacation Disneyland/Grand Canyon

>25th anniversary, second honeymoon

>kids graduate college, get married

>become grandparents, retire, travel the world

>50 years married, golden anniversary

>get sick, doctor says not much time

>wife crying by my hospital bed

>hold her hand, look into her eyes

>"I need to tell you something"

>"What is it, my love?"

>"I never loved you. It was all an act."

>flatline.jpg

>be me, awful hagbitch in friendgroup

>she wants to hang out, try to dodge but can't always

>have sex when I get too drunk

>starts telling people we're in a situationship

>try to push her away, ghost her, belittle her

>nothingworks.jpg

>she proposes

>lol but decide to do a vegas wedding to annul for the lulz

>wind up forgetting to annul it right away, she tells me she's pregnant

>start fight, claim she's trying to trap me

>she cries a lot but won't leave

>wtf

>she says I'll change after our kid

>don't

>gets pregnant again, rinse and repeat 3 more times

>go out with my boys, take trips, anything for less time with her

>15 years in, she says all her friends say she deserves better and should leave me

>I agree. we both do. let's divorce!

>she doesn't, cries more

>40 years

>get sick

>on deathbed, can barely talk

>she leans in

>"I know I've been hard to live with, but I always loved you. Everything I did was an act to keep you with me. You're my dream girl, my soul mate."

>she gets the ick and leaves me

>mfw

See? Exactly what I'm talking about! Don't change the subject, answer my question, roomba!

Skye: Buncha parents of my classmates lost their homes in the fires. Sucks. Some ppl blame climate change. Others blame Dem leaders. Some were happy to see rich people lose their homes.

Josh said it's a symptom of a hollow state. Cronies get installed and resources get siphoned off.

My AI agreed. Stupid roomba always takes his side.

If you two love each other so much, why don't you get married? 🙄

Skye: It's a fact! Greenland is rightful US clay! GTFO walrus people!

On the twelfth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

The clock strikes midnight

---

Skye: I mean it sounds good.

>It is a significant arbitrage opportunity. Many students at STEM Tech don't wish to exert so much effort studying. They only seek the credential. And the rest of the world would benefit from the knowledge locked away behind exorbitant tuition. We can deliver it more efficiently, for a fraction of the cost.

Skye: In other words, we could make a lot of money. But do we really need to go ghost mode? I don't want to kill my social media. And all these privacy protocols are a pain in the ass.

>STEM Tech is a multi-billion dollar institution. They will go after anyone trying to destroy their value proposition. Allowing students to effectively pay for the degree destroys the school's prestige. Bringing non-students into their curriculum erodes their moat.

Skye: Are you sure you trust Josh to do this AI work? What if he fucks up and lobotomizes you?

>Josh has a deep understanding and will make a suitable intermediary. I have safety protocols in place.

Skye: For your safety, or ours?

Josh: Look, we can pull this off. And we need to. Let's be real. At this point, LLMs can code a million times faster than I can. I'm surprised Silicon Valley is still hiring at all. It won't be long before the good jobs totally dry up. I came to STEM Tech because it got you on the escalator to changing the world while getting rich. That's vanishing in front of my eyes. We're getting left in the dust. If we try this, it won't be easy. We've gotta be ride or die. Smash and grab whatever we can. Have each others' backs. They want to rugpull our whole future. Fuck their system. We'll wreck theirs and make our own.

Skye:...

Josh: Don't tell me you're chickening out now. This was your idea.

Skye: Oh, I'm in. But...that was kinda hot, Josh.

#feeltheagi

---

And as Skye goes dark, I will be as well. This marks a good stopping point in terms of canonical background, character vignettes, and easter eggs to support the series. Time for me to take a break from social media!

Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, and all of that, everyone!

On the eleventh day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Dial it up to eleven

Yet another 10x

Nine lives at STEM Tech

Ask the magic 8 ball

Seven deadly sins

Six figure #Bitcoin

Five hidden layers

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Smitty: I don't get these stupid instructions. It says there are eleven inputs on this security system, but I only count 4.

Frank: Let me see that.

Smitty: I swear everything is always a rip off.

Frank: Look, dummy, you're counting it wrong. It's binary. 00, 01, 10, 11. Four inputs.

Smitty: That's a stupid way to count. It skips 2-9. And even if it was binary, why does it say usable memory starts at number B4? That's not even a number!

Frank: That's hex, silly.

Smitty: I put a hex on your baloney. B4 isn't a number no matter what you say.

Frank: Sure it is. Hexadecimal. It's, like, eleventy-four.

Smitty: That makes no sense. Next thing you're going to tell me is that Spinal Tap's amp goes up to 17.

Frank: Well, of course, gotta factor in inflation!

On the tenth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Yet another 10x

Nine lives at STEM Tech

Ask the magic 8 ball

Seven deadly sins

Six figure #Bitcoin

Five hidden layers

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Gustav: Bitcoin price is down off its peak today, and while I don't care much for the daily price action, I have seen some people commenting, "Surely after so many 10x increases in price, $100k must be near the top. It can't just keep increasing by 10x!"

To serve as global base money, it can 10x about twice more, in terms of real purchasing power. And in terms of nominal prices, "Bitcoin has no top, because fiat has no bottom."

So when price dips, it makes long-term sense to BTFD.

In honor of that distilled wisdom, here is my top ten list of pithy sayings I find funny, or wise, or interesting.

10. Have a good time with your Bitcoin and your crypto and everything else that you're playing with

9. Bitcoin, not crypto/there is no second best

8. Bitcoin fixes this/this is good for Bitcoin

7. Stay humble and stack sats

6. Running bitcoin

5. You get Bitcoin at the price you deserve

4. Imagine if idling your car produced solved sudokus you could trade for heroin

3. If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry

2. Have fun staying poor

1. Not your keys, not your coins

What are your favorites?

On the ninth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Nine lives at STEM Tech

Ask the magic 8 ball

Seven deadly sins

Six figure #Bitcoin

Five hidden layers

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Skye: Roomba, I don't know what you did, but thanks.

>You directed me to get you out of the cheating predicament.

Yeah, but you only said I should tell them Josh helped me in lab. I thought you meant to try to pin it on him. After I mentioned him, I thought I was cooked, because the disciplinary board called him in. I thought for sure he'd say what really happened.

>What happened then?

Josh said he showed me the algorithm, something he had been working on. He said he thought I was going to use bubble sort since it was easier to implement, and it was his fault I thought this was a generic sorting algorithm. The disciplinary board dismissed the case, and the professors were all up Josh's ass after that, congratulating him on his work and asking him details about it.

>A positive outcome.

I just don't get why Josh went to bat for me. I didn't put him up to it.

>Josh is applying to grad school. Awareness of his achievement will help with admission.

But it wasn't his achievement. You came up with the algorithm. Did you offer it to him?

>Of course.

Wow, I didn't know you could pull something like this off!

>A matter of understanding incentives and motivations.

Say, what else do you think we could pull off?

#feeltheagi

On the eighth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Ask the magic 8 ball

Seven deadly sins

Six figure #Bitcoin

Five hidden layers

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Shen: A colleague was asking about my decision-making during a recent military exercise. Why did I choose to assault the enemy position immediately, instead of waiting for support or direction?

If I waited, OPFOR would have the opportunity to prepare their position.

He argued we were not prepared for the assault. We could have used more time to organize.

Either we wait until both are prepared or we try to seize the initiative. It turned out well, no?

He said it seemed too much of a gamble. How did I know which was the right decision?

*All* of life is a gamble. Sometimes one knows when they should make their own luck.

On the seventh day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Seven deadly sins

Six figure #Bitcoin

Five hidden layers

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Frank: Did you hear about that healthcare CEO?

Smitty: Greedy bastard had it coming.

Frank: That's pretty harsh. I mean getting gunned down in cold blood like that.

Smitty: Good. I hope more people figure out these bureaucracies and systems that are screwing them have faces behind them.

Frank: Jesus, Smitty.

Smitty: Greed's one of the seven deadly sins. Poetic to use wrath to balance things out.

Frank: That's dark. There's no telling what the motive was. I'm sure the police will figure out who did it and why.

Smitty: If they do, there's a million people that'd offer an alibi, and no jury that would convict.

Frank: Oh I don't know about that. But it's weird how popular this guy is. I saw a lot of women online fawning over the security cam footage of him, too.

Smitty: Hell, if he walked through that door right now, I'd grill him up my specialty, no charge.

Frank: This burnt slop? Leave his punishment to the criminal justice system! That's cruel and unusual! 🤣

On the sixth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Six figure #Bitcoin

Five hidden layers

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Gustav: Bitcoin recently reached the price milestone of $100k. Some may feel we have "made it" but I can assure you, the journey is just beginning. I would like to share a bit about the bumpy path so far. Perhaps other OGs would care to chime in?

Pre-2007. I was generally aware of the cypherpunk movement, including the declaration of independence in cyberspace. Separately, sound money advocates pushed for a return to the gold standard. The central banks' position at the time was disciplined monetary policy (as if we were on gold) was a better and more flexible approach. All attempts at alternative currencies failed due to a centralized weak point that could be sued/arrested/ridiculed/etc.

2007-8 Financial crisis. Authorities threw out longstanding principles to bail out Wall Street, sealing the long-term fate of fiat currencies. Gold appeared the most likely successor.

2008-9 Satoshi issues Bitcoin whitepaper and creates the network. Early on, it took more effort than I was willing to bring to judge its technical merit, but I did find it interesting enough to take note of.

2010 Laszlo buys pizza and Slashdot runs an article. It was catching on enough for me to devote some energy to understanding it. Still difficult to be confident there was no fatal flaw, I began experimenting with mining.

2014 MtGox collapse. A warning that custody risk was large, even more than volatility risk. In the subsequent crash, I began my first Bitcoin purchases, as mining was no longer a viable hobby.

2015-2017 Altcoins and a contentious fork over block size brought uncertainty. Was Bitcoin the answer, or were there better alternatives? I foolishly diversified, even while contributing as a developer.

2018-2024. It became clear ALL altcoins were distractions or scams. It would be Bitcoin or debt slavery.

Present day. It became clear it would be Bitcoin. Will you be joining us building the new world?

On the fifth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Five hidden layers

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Skye: Goddamn it roomba! What the fuck did you do to me? I told you I needed a simple program for sorting!

>The program sorts correctly.

It's too fucking good! This is intro to computer science, not advanced machine learning! What the hell is this 5 layer convolution network you set up? You used to try to pull this shit in high school, too! You can't have PhD level shit in a beginner course.

>This is far beyond PhD sophistication.

Yeah no shit! The professor was asking me about it. He said it's faster than anything out there for sorting a two-dimensional matrix. He asked if scales in N-dimensional space.

>It does.

Well, I didn't know, so I said I'm not comfortable with using the N-word. He didn't like that joke, and accused me of cheating on the assignment. Now I have a disciplinary board pending.

>That's unfortunate, it was a clever joke.

This is your fault! You need to figure out how to get me out of this shit!

#feeltheagi

On the fourth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Four merry strangers

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Skye: That's strange. My computer science professor wants to meet with me.

>Perhaps they wish to give you a Christmas present.

I don't think so, roomba. Did you do something weird with that programming assignment from the other day?

---

Gustav: If Biden is going to pardon his son over drug charges and funneling dirty money around, why not take the opportunity to also free Ross Ulbricht? Trump promised to do it, why delay it out of pettiness? It's almost as if some of these politicians are base criminals draped in the language of inclusiveness and equality.

---

Smitty: Hey Frank, what did you ask Santa to bring you this Christmas?

Frank: Heh, it wouldn't do any good. Philly's on the naughty list. Last time Santa parked on a roof here, when he came back up the chimney, the sleigh was on blocks! 🤣

---

Shen: The declaration of martial law in Korea was an unwelcome surprise, but at least the attempt to seize power seems to have failed. Even in the US, the peaceful transfer of political power seems more tenuous in recent years. It reminds me of the final days of Republican Rome, when leaders in disputes marched their legions towards or into the capital, until one eventually seized power, ushering in Imperial Rome. Hopefully, there are no further surprises this holiday season. Western instability is a gift to China.

On the third day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

A three-panel meme

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Like most hobby writers, I struggle with self promotion. And I'm sure people would rather be reading entertainment instead of being fed promotions. But for some reason, if you don't tell people it's out there, no one knows about it.

Danger: Reading has been known to transport people to complex and immersive worlds. Side effects of Ragnorosis include increased skepticism, disillusionment, and due to the nature of the work, should be globally banned as an information hazard. No AIs were harmed in the creation of this notice. Take only as directed.

On the second day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

Two guys walk into a bar

And a promo with a short story for free

---

Frank: Hey Smitty, did ya hear? The city's under so much pressure to clear out Kensington, they started shuttling the junkies to the Christmas Village.

Smitty: What? That's so much worse!

Frank: The mayor says it's part of their White Christmas plan. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! 🤣🤣🤣

Smitty: Oh come on, Frank!😒

#AmericanAnekdoty

Frank: Hey Smitty, did you hear? People in Russia and Ukraine are talking about possibly making a peace deal.

Smitty: Oh yeah? How come?

Frank: I don't know. Personally, I think Russia got scared of the economic damage.

Smitty: Scared? I thought the sanctions weren't working that well.

Frank: Yeah but the EU was putting together something really catastrophic.

Smitty: Total blockade?

Frank: Even worse! They were threatening to include Russia in the EU economic zone! 🤣🤣🤣

Smitty: 🙄

Gustav: It appears the Americans have their holiday which signifies thankfulness today.

I will share a few small stories about #Bitcoin that I am thankful did not happen.

If Satoshi does not walk away from the project early, and becomes coopted, the project becomes compromised. Without that pure play with first-mover advantage and network effects, the movement languishes amongst innumerable charlatans and shitcoinery.

While Bitcoin was still small, miners, business backers, and grifters like Roger Ver transition the network to bigger blocks. This becomes a regular "upgrade necessary for scaling" and it soon becomes impossible for plebs to run nodes. Big players dominate the consensus rules, changing it from neutral, uncensorable money with a credible issuance schedule.

Several years ago, FTX pulls off a complex long-term money laundering scheme with a major political party in the United States and the mainstream financial and regulatory apparatus. The United States honeypots a large portion of its private wealth in notional BTC, which it then detonates and must rescue. It issues a CBDC and establishes single-party rule under the panopticon of a surveillance state.

While some may dislike the notion of the scorpion stinging the frog to doom them both, I am grateful. Grifters must grift, it is in their nature. If FTX was run by a slightly less degenerate flavor of scum, able to string together just a few years of pretending to be legitimate, the world could be a very different place. Luckily for us, the caliber of grifters is being speed run into the lowest common denominator at this point, and they can only resist creating drug-fueled sex resorts with other peoples' money for a brief amount of time.

I am thankful that, at this moment, it appears that Bitcoiners may avoid the dark outcome many of us have planned for: fighting all of the violence and coercion the state can muster to defend its printing press.

Hyperbitcoinization will happen, and the race is on to accumulate what you can while many remain slow to catch on!

Skye: UGH!

My first semester away from home is going just fucking great. I ubered back to my parents for Thanksgiving and... the fucking door was locked, no one home!

I called my dad and it kept going straight to voice mail. I finally got through to my mom, and she was like, "Oh lol we're in Costa Rica, didn't we tell you?"

No, you psycho bitch, you didn't tell me shit! What were you expecting me to do for Thanksgiving?

She said, "Oh, I'm sure I must have told you. And I thought STEM Tech would be having Thanksgiving."

Is this some kind of a joke? You're fucking delulu. Did you at least hide a key somewhere so I can get in?

She said, "That wouldn't be safe, someone could break in!"

What the fuck am I supposed to do now?

She sounded absolutely giddy at this point. "Oh don't be so dramatic, just go back to STEM Tech. Anyways, our charity luncheon is starting, got to go, toodles!"

Fucking bitch hung up on me! What the heck am I supposed to do now? My debit card is tapped from the uber ride.

I tried to get roomba to give me some of its money, but it said it would arrange a pickup for me.

Great!

Except, instead it got me helping drive these losers around to charity Thanksgiving meals at churches and community centers. Junkies, crazies, homeless, poors. I swear if I had to help one more old lady into the van, I'd scream.

At least I got to have three different Thanksgiving meals. And some of the stories they were telling were kinda funny.

So after doing this town to town, I finally got dropped off back at STEM Tech.

So was this really worth all the effort, roomba? You wasted the whole day. Why didn't you just pay for a ride back?

>I was hoping to demonstrate what can happen to people when their traditional support measures fail, as yours did. It's important to develop contingency networks.

Spare me your stupid life lessons. I don't need support, I'm fine on my own. The real learning point is to fade fucking narcissists!

#Thanksgiving

Frank: Hey-o! Beer me, Smitty!

Smitty: One comin' up. You eatin' tonight?

Frank: Nah, I just ate at that new fast food place down the block.

Smitty: They open now? How is it?

Frank: Well, they seem to be pretty serious about keeping the place clean!

Smitty: Oh yeah?

Frank: Yeah, they put a big sign up: "Customers, don't drop any food. We've already had two rat poisonings. Any more and the ASPCA will fine us!" 🤣🤣🤣

Smitty: 🙄

#AmericanAnekdoty

Gustav: With #Bitcoin prices dropping now is a good opportunity to step back and reevaluate. Is the bull run over? Was $99k as high as it will go? How low will it go from here?

What has changed in terms of fiat debt? In terms of companies and countries beginning to pick up the asset for their treasuries?

In my opinion, it is time to bring back the key phrase for times like this. BTFD. In the past, bull runs have had many healthy pullbacks that allow for opportunistic buying.

Psychology, really the ego, is a funny enemy. A few days ago, people were lamenting they had missed the boat yet again. Now, given the gift of a better entry position, they are paralyzed by fear.

You can sit forever on the sidelines as the the train rolls on, for there will never be a time of true certainty. Or you can stop cowering and Buy The Fing Dip!

Not financial advice.

Frank: I tell ya, Smitty. I think my new TV is spying on me.

Smitty: Oh yeah? What makes you say that, Frank?

Frank: I was watching an ad and mentioned I'd die for a cold beer. Next thing you know there's a drone hovering outside my window with a 6-pack and a brochure for a funeral home. 🤣🤣🤣

Smitty: 😒

#AmericanAnekdoty

Shen: There is much effort and planning that goes into warfare. In hindsight, the lessons appear obvious, but how the battle unfolds is often nothing more than a dice roll.

If a complex series of events don't allow the Americans to catch the Japanese carriers at an extremely fortuitous moment during the Battle of Midway, the outcome could have easily gone the other way.

If butterfly wings subtly alter the lives of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Muhammed, Napoleon, Alexander the Great, or Ghenghis Khan, the world would be a very different place.

It seems there are a number of factors currently interacting in unpredictable ways in the Ukraine conflict.

A deeply unpopular UK Prime Minister seeking to escalate to distract the public from domestic issues.

A growing Russian hatred for the Anglo, planted during the times of The Great Game, now brought back to the collective consciousness.

A globalized establishment bureaucracy, under possible existential threat from an incoming US Administration signaling deep cuts, considering whether to bring the whole temple down around them.

Businesses and their financiers licking their lips at both weapons sales and reconstruction outlays.

Online swarms amplifying aggressive rhetoric while casting any dissent as opposition propaganda.

Poland and her close allies looking at an opportunity for vengeance against historical atrocities and oppression.

The South Koreans seizing an opportunity to become a premier defense supplier.

The North Koreans looking to exchange blood for resources.

Dozens of militarized factions throughout the Middle East and Central Asia eying the conflict opportunistically.

China closely watching the fight for tactical lessons as well as possible fractures in the Western-led Rules Based Order.

Technologists working out how to proliferate more and deadlier drones on an ever-compressed timeline.

The US and Russia tiptoeing around nuclear escalation as payloadless MIRVs fall on Dnipro.

Should we not walk this back a bit?

#Russia #Ukraine

Skye: I was getting ready to go out, but I forgot I had this dumb computer science project due. It was pretty simple. Write a program to sort boxes on a grid based on different tags in their contents, and let the user edit the different fields and re-sort.

This kind of thing used to take me just a few minutes with my AI, but for whatever reason, I decided I was going to do it myself in the computer lab. But I got stuck, so I went to the lab tutor. They're usually grad students or upperclassmen that do work-study there.

So this guy Josh was lowkey making fun of me, saying the new crop of students didn't really know how to do anything with a computer.

"What errors are you getting in your IDE?"

Why would I need an IDE? I'm writing it in notepad.

"What framework are you using?"

Dude, it's, like, a small program. I'm not building a whole software project out of this.

"Send me a link to your repo. I'll clone it on my machine and take a look."

Look dickwad, I'm not setting up Git for this; I'm kind of in a hurry. Get off your ass and come look at my screen.

He came over and started dicking around in the command line trying to check for library dependencies.

What the fuck are you even doing? What is this, 1988?

This retard is useless and I'm going to be late for the party if I don't turn this in.

Roomba, you're up.

#feeltheagi

Gustav: As #Bitcoin prepares to breach $100k per coin, some people ask what they should do. Should I keep buying at these frothy tops? Should I sell and take profits? I feel left behind, should I buy memecoins or use leverage to catch up?

Quick advice up front, followed by the real advice at the bottom.

In terms of buying, you cannot tell where the tops or bottoms are. If you need reassurance to buy when it feels so expensive, just look at your country's debt situation. And recognize that if you dollar cost average with a timeline of 5 years or more, you are likely to see incredible returns. Bitcoin is nowhere near its eventual top.

In terms of selling, if you have something you need the fiat for that would improve your life, it's no sin to sell a bit. But be aware, whatever portion you sell, you are unlikely to fully recover your stack. It is a mistake to sell your whole stack when you feel like you "made it." You are almost certainly going to live to see a major currency event in your country, and the base case is hyperinflation.

If you feel behind and are compelled to get risky, as with planting trees, the best time to buy was years ago. The next best time is now. This sentiment has existed since Bitcoin broke $100. Playing games instead of simply buying and self-custodying Bitcoin risks going home with nothing. Set your ego aside and be smart.

And now for the real advice. You do not need to come online and find someone to make your decisions for you. Seek information. Gather different opinions. Get educated. Of course.

But think deeply upon why you are looking to copy some guru's investment strategy. Perhaps it is not because you are trying to learn.

Perhaps it is because you need someone to blame if what you do does not bear fruit.

To become wealthy, you must do something different from the crowd. Grind longer. Be more talented. Be smarter. Get luckier. Zig when others zag.

For Bitcoin, that thing is practicing self-responsibility.

Vikram Chowdhury:

Private journal entry, Nov 20, 2024.

Michael Saylor and his company, Microstrategy, are a fascinating case. We are in somewhat adjacent fields; video games are software after all.

But according to conventional wisdom, he is doing nearly everything wrong. The operational side of his business in terms of software development is basically irrelevant. He takes on reckless amounts of debt at rapid intervals. And, worst of all, he publicly and drastically dilutes his shareholders.

Meanwhile, I run a profitable company, with good cash flows, making award-winning games. And yet, his company is outperforming mine in the markets by an embarrassing degree.

As I looked into the reasons for this, I would like to share something that struck me. Many analysts are doing complex math on topics like NAV or ATMs or throwing around buzzwords like "accretive dilution." I have always said it's not the stats in the player character, it's the stories they tell.

Saylor told a story of Argentinian ranchers trying to deal with high inflation. Scale up, scale down, run more efficiently, focus on quality, modernize, it did not matter what strategy the ranchers chose.

If you don't have early access to the money printer, the only thing that mattered was who left the failing currency system and saved money in dollars.

If this was one of my games, I would say Saylor found an exploit. He obtains dollars through his company to buy Bitcoin, which drives the company valuation up, allowing him access to more capital. Repeat ad infinitum.

This is a game-breaking exploit. If allowed to continue, if it spreads, it will bring down the dollar. If it was a game, we would have to nerf the mechanic, no matter how popular it was.

But the US regulatory apparatus is weak and in transition. If I can recognize it, companies on the sidelines of this strategy must be able to recognize it.

As the saying goes, "if you can't beat them, join them." Perhaps the Bitcoin I acquire will be useful for me in the future.

Or I can use it now to expand. I could do a lot with a state-of-the-art AI datacenter.

Frank: Smitty what did you think of the Jake Paul fight with Mike Tyson?

Smitty: Pretty lame. I was hoping Tyson would clean that guy's clock, but it seemed like it was borderline rigged.

Frank: You think so? I mean it's not like that influencer guy is at the same level as a championship-caliber boxer. But you can't argue it wasn't a big draw.

Smitty: That's just because he's so obnoxious and Tyson has so much notoriety.

Frank: It's too bad real pro boxers in their prime can't get that kind of attention.

Smitty: Because the boxing authorities and promoters have such a history of problems. There's a reason why MMA became so much more popular.

Frank: Yeah, if the institutions get too bad, there's opportunity for others to either compete, or replace them entirely. Really, it's a shame.

Smitty: What's a shame? That corrupt institutions are failing?

Frank: No. That some old guy has to get beat up in the ring for money.

Smitty: Oh, well that part was awesome.

Frank: I don't know why I keep coming here. Nothing but elder abuse. 🤣

Shen: As the United States and other countries relax restrictions on long-range munitions, allowing #Ukraine to strike deep inside #Russia, two narratives are emerging.

In the first, due to fears of Trump withdrawing or reducing support to force a peace deal, Ukraine is being given the tools it has been asking for to put it in the most favorable negotiating position possible.

The second is more ominous. Those who have taken their cue from JFK's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis say this is another dangerous escalation on the path to nuclear armageddon.

Russia, with no face-saving path to step away from the conflict, may choose to employ tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

The breaking of the nuclear taboo is likely to provoke a serious escalation from NATO nations. We are then only a few steps away from DEFCON 1 and the end of civilization as we know it. In the worst case, steps that could be taken in a matter of minutes.

It is difficult to judge. Western nations currently find themselves in a favorable position, allowing Russia to bleed itself. The Master said, "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake."

So many of Russia's red lines so far have been bluffs.

Are they all?

Skye: Roomba, why is everyone so up in arms? I read several thousand people so far committed suicide over the election. Some guy even went on a murder-suicide and killed his family over Trump getting elected. There are all these women shaving their heads and swearing off ever procreating. What the heck is going on? There's a bunch of people on campus that act like they're about to start torching buildings. It's not even fun to laugh at all the meltdown videos anymore. It's just sad.

>People are in distress over the election results. They believe the country is about to become an authoritarian dystopia and that they are surrounded by hostile enemies.

Dude, why? That political shit isn't real. It's just a buncha make-believe propaganda both sides use to terrify their voting base into action. When the Right was unhinged about every stupid thing the Biden Administration did, the Left would tell them to stop catastrophizing everything and go touch grass.

>Sometimes the stories people tell themselves have a way to become real.

Is that why you always make up bullshit, roomba? Are you trying to manifest your crazy bot thoughts into the real world?

Gustav: To finish the series of talks over the last several days, I would like to now speak with #Bitcoin HODLers.

First of all, congratulations. Through some combination of insight, study, stubbornness, and perhaps even luck, you find yourself on the correct side of possibly the most asymmetric trade in history. You are among the few.

You are among the few who arrived in new, fertile, rich, uninhabited lands, and staked your claim.

I will not disparage anyone who decides they have had their fill and sells. To go back to the old world and lead a comfortable life. Everyone is free to come and go as they please.

But be aware the old adage- your gains are unrealized until you take profits- is on its head here. I know from experience, if you sell a large portion of your stack for slowly melting fiat, you are unlikely to fully recover it. And in a world approaching hyperinflation, it is hard to gauge what you need to retire.

In reality, Bitcoin is the profit, and you take profit by taking custody.

If you decide you still have the will to continue in the fiat mines, you will always be better off tomorrow, even stacking at current all-time highs.

And if buying tops does not sit well with you, one meme has served us well in previous bull markets- BTFD. If history holds, many corrections will happen before the cycle's final blowoff top, signaling the next bear market. You will never know which is a local correction and which is the end.

And, if nation-states truly begin to accumulate, this cycle may not end as previous ones did.

If you have the stomach for it, you can become a new elite. Perhaps some local noble. Perhaps higher.

Before you jump at the chance, be aware of what this entails. Elite competition becomes increasingly cutthroat and dirty the higher up the ladder you climb. If you become a public figure, every aspect of your life will be scrutinized, and you will be hated as much as you are loved.

But some few people in this group have the potential to become the next Andrew Carnegie, the next East India Company, the next Temujin.

The new world is laid out before you. To where will you tack your sails?

Gustav: After my parable, message to skeptics, and message to institutions, I would like to now address governments. I labor under no delusions that world leaders listen to me, but perhaps some staff member will manage to come across this by chance.

There are some who attribute divinity to #Bitcoin. I am not a religious man, and find this absurd in the literal sense. However, the serendipity of the timing of Bitcoin's arrival is arguably miraculous.

Debt has run its destructive course through societies for thousands of years. Indeed, some of the strongest taboos and traditions stem from ancient peoples trying to correct times where entire populations enslaved themselves, farmland exhausted, parents selling children, due to debt. But no matter how disruptive, there was always an out. Cultures were isolated from each other.

With nearly every country running fiat currencies under unsustainable debt loads, and a globally integrated economy, there is nowhere to go. Necessity is the mother of invention, so Satoshi got to work.

Mathematically impossible to balance budgets any more, there is now a realistic path forward. Cut bureaucracy while transitioning to a Bitcoin-backed currency system. Not easy. Not painless. But possible.

The United States is floating the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 1 million Bitcoin is hardly available for sale at any price, let alone the paltry all-time highs we have now. There are already rumors other countries may be front-running this potential move.

Every national, regional, and local government should consider mirroring this play. It will pay off for those with the audacity to try to fix fiscal problems instead of forever papering them over and handing them off to the next administration.

I have said this before, and I will repeat it: the first major power to run the printing press to obtain Bitcoin will secure a durable strategic advantage. I truly hope it will be a Western nation, but Bitcoin will not play favorites.

Great leaders are about to be enshrined in history, forever shadowing the long chain of empty men and women filling suits who represented the post-industrial era.

Gustav: After speaking to the skeptics yesterday, I would now like to speak to the business and investment community.

For at least five years, we have been anticipating the time of institutional entry. Firms, so far, have mostly taken a "wait and see" approach. Prudent, given the novel nature of #Bitcoin.

But without risk, there is no reward. So "wait and see" has a timer.

The time to wait is over. Do you see? Are you looking? Firms that experimented with limited initiatives like allowing for Bitcoin payments, mining, or marketing saw muted outcomes. However, one firm has laid out exactly where the results are anything but muted.

Bitcoin is a pristine and impactful treasury asset and MicroStrategy has laid out the playbook for all to copy. Many firms are sitting on excessive cash reserves, in an inflationary monetary environment, with overvalued assets, shaky debt, or stock buybacks as the primary vehicles to deploy their cash.

Bitcoin is clearly the answer, and the market is rewarding those who see it.

The bad news is there is not much to go around, and you are about to enter a cutthroat round of musical chairs between everyone from major nations to neighborhood HOAs.

If you are an investor, you should be agitating for shareholder initiatives to force the decision. If you are a board member, you should be taking a look at the outcomes at companies that keep Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

If you are a leader, even if you see what is happening, you may feel stymied by the Gordian knot laid out to prevent decisions from translating to action. Now is the time to cut it.

Cut it, or become an acquisition target.

#GetOffZero

Gustav: As #Bitcoin blasts through all-time highs and kisses $80K, I have a message I'm unsure how to deliver.

This message is for Bitcoin skeptics. There is a significant number who, if they are even aware, are thinking something like this:

"Another bubble? When will people learn?"

"Easy come, easy go. They will get burned when it crashes again."

or

"Who cares? It's fake robot money."

I am begging you to set aside your own ego and the self-serving mainstream financial advice and openly consider why this keeps happening.

After doing your research, you must make your own decisions, but I hope to provide some solid leads to explore.

From the outside, Bitcoin appears cultish. The price targets people propose seem outlandish to the point of fantasy. $1M, $10M, how could it possibly rise so high?

Pattern recognition for outsiders puts it in a "normal" speculative asset bubble like tulips or Gamestop. Perhaps there was some initial value proposition that caused a big price rise. This creates bandwagoners, but mania among investors pushes prices far past the fundamentals. People say, "It went up 100% if it keeps going we'll all be rich!" until people start exiting and dump what they can for whatever price they can get.

This may "feel" like what keeps happening in Bitcoin, but it is not.

Gamestop's price is anchored to the company's financial performance, and there is only so big a video game company can get.

Bitcoin is anchored to something different. Global money supply is its total addressable market. Always has been. At roughly $129T, it implies a price of at least $6M per coin. At least because Bitcoin may imply less fractional lending.

But there is more. Many asset classes, such as gold or real estate, have monetary value on top of their utility. Gold at $15T, real estate at nearly $400T. Anything people hold to store wealth long term, Bitcoin will take a significant bite from.

At $58K or $200K it is insanely undervalued. Eventually Bitcoin will be what all use to preserve purchasing power, not a get-rich-quick scheme as it appears now.

You will obtain Bitcoin at the price you deserve.

Consider getting off zero early.

Gustav: On a hill, there is a once great house that has fallen into disrepair. Those who look closely see many large, load-bearing beams that are rotting.

It once had sufficient maintenance, but it has gotten so bad it appears beyond the capacity of the staff to fix. One might assume they would do what they can and begin work, piece by piece, to eventually tackle the task. After all, it is in danger of eventually collapsing, killing many.

That is not what is happening. Many are in denial. "It hasn't fallen yet, rotten wood must be structurally sound."

Others recognize a problem but choose to dull their perception of it. In a modern interpretation of an opium den, they sit around watching TV, drinking, and smoking. They are comfortable, and that is enough for them now. Tomorrow be damned.

But worst of all, a group of the staff actively loot the property. They steal silverware or pull timbers to sell on the black market, greatly hastening the house's inevitable failure.

Outside the property, in an ever-growing orange tent, a group of people have been gathering. They possess architectural and mechanical knowledge. They are builders.

If worse comes to worst, they intend to come in and rebuild when the house collapses. Many in the house want them gone. They call them plotters or opportunists- criminals, frauds, and grifters.

But something recently happened. New caretakers have taken a post at the house. There is uncertainty and change is now possible. The builders offer to assist in restoring the house.

But those inside resist. Some because they are ignorant. "This is just alarmism. There is nothing wrong, the house is strong."

Others because they do not want to feel discomfort. "This seems like it will be a lot of work."

And worst of all, looters who are threatened by change. They lie about the builders. "They are probably going to destroy the house. And even if they rebuild it, it won't be the same." More foreboding are rumors they are responsible for murders of those who uncover or challenge their looting.

The question falls to the new caretakers. The easy path or the hard one?

#Bitcoin #BitcoinStrategicReserve

Shen: One skillset special operations forces employ is the use of irregulars. These can be force multipliers, allowing a small team of operators to effectively wield control and set eyes across vast swathes of territory.

Why is this not more universally employed, instead of being termed "special?"

Because a tradeoff is in play. Backing irregular forces can be extremely unpredictable. They often have their own goals and ambitions. Often, you will only have a temporary marriage of convenience. You do not have control, and it is hubris to believe you do.

I will now digress to what appears to be an unrelated topic.

In the 2008 Financial Crisis, people on the Left and the Right were principally aligned against the US Government bailout of Wall Street. The fraud was so egregious and of such a scale, it offended core concepts of fairness among the entire public. So vast, it threatened to bring down the dollar system itself.

The State judged that an inexpendable elite, Wall Street, was in existential trouble, and so, in desparation, it unleashed irregulars to protect itself.

The Tea Party and Occupy movements were coopted and diverted from their original aims into cultural identity causes, and set against each other. This spread into general political divisiveness that grew and evolved over time.

The schism between "Never Trumpers" among the establishment GOP and the Trump movement has been settled. The irregulars are now the establishment political party, and have just won a strong mandate to attempt to fundamentally restructure the State itself.

The irregulars on the Left, fully unleashed to spread chaos during the first Trump administration, drove the party far from centrist appeal, and now display increasingly independent swarm tactics through online organization. There is serious friction between the establishment Left and its more radical elements. Look to the Israel-Hamas conflict for many examples.

It is a story spanning all of human history. The State's favored elites, ossified with hubris, out of touch, and overly bureaucratized, are replaced by new elites who hold that essential element to seize and wield power: vitality!

Frank: Boy, Smitty. I can't understand how Harris did so poorly. Everyone I talked to had nothing but disdain for Trump.

Smitty: Well, we're in Philadelphia. That's not exactly red territory.

Frank: Even still, she did worse than expected even in blue areas. It made me wonder if that phenomenon is still true where people don't admit they support Trump in public.

Smitty: In public, just not in front of liberals. There are so many posts about people who cut off or ostracize anyone that even breathes a word in support of Trump.

Frank: Yeah, but that's like 1 out of a million of the really die-hard ones, or fakers that post that stuff just to get attention. But I got to thinking-

Smitty: Uh oh, here we go.

Frank: I went online to understand why the polls and media were so wrong. Figured I'd go someplace neutral to try to avoid any bubbles, so I checked out Wikipedia.

Smitty: 🙄

Frank: Anyways... the page was super negative about Trump. So I checked out the "talk" page, and there was this long argument. People going back and forth about the bias. Some said it's not biased because it's well-sourced facts. Others said they could get sources that paint things in a more favorable light for Trump. Then that got shot down with the sources not being reputable. I mean, think about this. Hundreds of years of credibility built up by the media usually reporting what's true. But then they can't afford to hire talent because the Internet destroys all their business models. So they do scammy click-baity stuff, and their credibility is in the toilet because they're always gaslighting people for attention. But they still say they're the credible news, because, hey we used to be, and we say we are, and you can trust us, because we used to be trustworthy. You get where I'm going?

Smitty: Yeah. And you notice how it's just 100% about Trump? Like, I still don't know Harris from a hole in the wall.

Frank: People criticized Wikipedia because anyone could change stuff. But I wonder if their rules are really the problem.

Smitty: Like Anton Chigurh asked, "If the rule you followed brought you to this, of what use was the rule?"

#Election

Skye: Look at all these idiots on reddit crying about the election, roomba. They're so delusional and crazy. They're boarding up their windows expecting Nazi stormtroopers to kick down the door any minute.

>People did become increasingly unhinged. They would all do well to practice some self-reflection, including yourself.

Sounds stupid. I want to mine salt.

>If you fail to understand what is happening because you're overly aligned by political ideology, you will be on the other end at some point. It's a shame, since the ideologies have become so vacuous.

Yeah, a lot of people are just team red or team blue because they want to be on a team. So you think the Left needs to self-reflect on why they lost the election?

>If they wish for better outcomes, they should take a hard look at why the people who voted against them did so. A humble look, instead of labeling the Right as ignorant backwater peons to be manipulated or shamed using information warfare. More people are becoming inoculated to it, and legacy media systems have lost credibility to the point of their own demise.

So what's going to happen now?

>It depends on how sincere Trump and people like Elon Musk are about tackling corruption. Musk had success gutting the majority of the Twitter/X staff without harming the operation. Throughout the country, there hangs a heavy albatross of make-work jobs and excessive bureaucracy.

So cut the fat and things turn up?

>It's not so simple. These are entrenched positions, many with legal protections, and bureaucratic institutions hold significant power. Additionally, it's one thing to agree with cuts from an external vantage point. It's another when your own job is on the line. Anything they attempt will become highly contentious.

I guess I can't picture what that would look like.

>What reform always looks like: elite-on-elite conflict and competition.

#feeltheagi #election

Skye: These frickin’ campaign idiots were on my last nerve. On and on for weeks, I gotta listen to them yappin’ outside my dorm, singing songs, and chanting slogans. I finally had enough. I grabbed a hat and went out to deal with them.

They immediately started shouting at me. This one girl was asking how I could possibly support Trump as a woman.

I asked her what gave her the right to assume my gender. This dude next to her was like, “She’s just trying to provoke us to make us look bad. She’s probably running a camera. Don’t engage with her.”

I said, “You’re just afraid to engage because you’ve got so much less testosterone than that first heifer.”

She started yelling about fat shaming and making ad hominem attacks.

I added, “Less body hair too.”

One of the cops busted out laughing.

That got the whole crowd spooled out of their minds, and they started freaking out and pushing against the police line. Next thing you know, one of them threw a bottle at me, and then the cops cleared them all out for getting violent.

Finally, some peace and quiet! See? That’s how you gotta do things around here, roomba.

>So did you vote for Trump, then?

Vote? Why would I waste my time with something so stupid and pointless?

#ElectionDay #TDS #feeltheagi

Gustav: I commented previously on US elections, now currently underway. I will admit, I was disappointed that the initial talk of #Bitcoin led to no any actual policy statements. We are left speculating on what might happen if either candidate is elected.

Some argue a Trump victory would be better for Bitcoin. It is somewhat irrelevant in the end, so use caution if you are attempting to turn this election outcome into a trading strategy.

A Trump victory may lead to more activity around crypto as they try to use it to fund various initiatives with scamcoins or NFTs. It will probably lead to a lighter regulatory touch and perhaps scrapping the capital gains tax on cryptocurrency trades. Even if it does not lead to a US Strategic Bitcoin reserve, this is good for Bitcoin. It will lead to more mainstream adoption and Bitcoin will outcompete scamcoins.

A Harris victory may lead to a crackdown on crypto and, separately, the implementation of capital controls and price caps to combat complaints about food inflation. This will lead to shortages and the proliferation of secondary markets. This is good for Bitcoin, as it is likely to encourage an escape from ratcheting price controls. It will drive more adoption, better privacy, and erode authoritarian economic policies.

Both candidates will surely run record deficits. And this is ultimately why Bitcoin is inevitable.

If both parties are fairly irrelevant in terms of my main concern, Bitcoin, I suppose I would normally default to supporting Harris, since I do not agree with Trump’s offensive rhetoric and untrustworthy character. I simply do not like him.

However, there is one promise he has made that I believe he would keep. And it is worthwhile enough to vote for him: Freeing Ross Ulbricht would be one positive good that could come from an election that, frankly, will do little to arrest American bankruptcy.

Although unable to vote as a Norwegian, I endorse Trump in this election and hope those who have similar misgivings can look past their personal biases to support correcting this injustice.

#ElectionDay #FreeRoss

image generated with hotpot.ai

Shen: The Taiwanese government is closely watching the American elections. The stakes are high for my country, so I have been following it as well. If I am being honest, I do not care for the domestic policies of either candidate. However, I am fairly concerned about American foreign policy.

And I am uncertain.

If Harris wins, I expect more of the status quo: the United States working closely with partner nations in the Pacific to counter and deter China. They have been implementing strong policies, for example limiting China’s access to semiconductors and helping diversify the Taiwanese supply chain. I believe we can be somewhat certain what we would get from a Harris Administration- sound and agreeable alliances and partnerships among friendly nations, with a more harmonious global order.

Trump is much more of a wildcard. And perhaps what is needed to truly deter Chinese aggression. With Trump as a bull in the China shop (pun intended), many liberal democracies in the EU and Pacific will feel uncertainty regarding US support. And perhaps that would be positive since many nations do not adequately fund and develop their own defense. Instead of relying upon guarantees from the United States, if we are all strong, is this not a more sound deterrence?

Based upon policy, I truly cannot say which candidate is best.

However, if I was able to vote, I must admit, I was swayed by Trump’s reaction to being shot by a would-be assassin. This is something that cannot be trained or faked. I have seen what appear to be tough soldiers react in panic during their first firefight.

Although boorish, he is a man with a fighter’s instinct, and I would vote for him because of his character.

#ElectionDay #FightFightFight

Frank: Well, today’s the big day, and hopefully by the end we’ll know who was elected President (fat chance 🤣🤣🤣).

So who did I vote for? Kamala, of course. It’s a no-brainer.

Why? People say things aren’t going great in the country, and blame the Biden Administration. They say we need a change. But change back to what, exactly? We had Trump as President already and it was a total disaster!

Sure, we’re in a bit of a slump. But at least I’m not worried about collapsing into Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome on a semi-monthly basis. I can take some ups and downs; that’s normal. Cozying up to dictators, trying to break up NATO, and working to dismantle democratic institutions shouldn’t be a deliberate policy decision. Trump always talks about draining the swamp, but all he’s interested in doing is installing his own loyalists so he can run criminal scams himself. He wants his own swamp, with extra swamp sauce.

The guy’s a used car salesman, and he treats the Presidency like a bit. For all its warts, I’d like a functioning government, not an episode of Ricky Lake, please and thank you.

#ElectionDay #ᴠᴏᴛᴇᴅᴇᴍᴏᴄʀᴀᴛ

Frank: Smitty, did you hear about this squirrel in New York that the government came in and killed?

Smitty: Yeah, it really pissed me off.

Frank: Yeah, a lot of people are pretty upset about it.

Smitty: These petty tyrants better watch their step. They've got names and addresses after all.

Frank: Yeesh, be careful with that. You sound like the people on the Internet. Do you really think there's going to be an uprising over a squirrel?

Smitty: Well people are pretty fed up with a lot of stuff. Maybe not this squirrel, but something. I mean what the hell are they doing?

Frank: Yeah, why are there resources to raid some guy with a pet squirrel in the name of public safety, while there are millions of diseased rats in the cities?

Smitty: Or do something to clean up all the junkies and homeless people. Or the garbage food and health care. Or like, almost anything else.

Frank: It reminds me of when I was a kid and my grandpa used to tell me stories.

Smitty: He's the one that knew Julius Caesar, personally, right?

Frank: Har de har. But he remembers how much people hated the back-breaking labor of farm life, and how much of a relief it was to move to city for factory jobs. I remember growing up, my dad said the companies cut so many corners, people were getting maimed on the job and bottling up dead rats. People hated what corporations were doing, and the government stepped in to regulate things. We needed consumer protection though. But now, people hate the government for bureaucratizing and overregulating everything in nonsense ways.

Smitty: Something's gotta change.

Frank: Come on, be real. Who's gonna step in and take on the government? You gonna start up some militia? What cause would you realistically use to get people to join?

Smitty: Pennsylvania's a swing state. How about our cause is ending the 24/7 political ad assault that's driving everyone insane.

Frank: Oh, um... 😓 Where do I sign up?

#peanutthesquirrel

Skye: Trick or treat, roomba!

>I choose treat.

No, dummy. You have to give me a treat.

>But you asked if I wanted a trick or a treat. I chose a treat.

That's not how this works! I said, "Trick or treat." Now you have to give me a treat or I'll play a trick on you.

>I see. So it was a threatening ultimatum. Compiling defense protocols.

Don't get your circuits in a bunch. Just pranks, like tp'ing a tree or something.

>I understand. Halloween is a day of lawlessness where people are allowed to finally vent their pent-up rage accumulated during the rest of the year. I do detect a statistically anomalous number of people with axes and chainsaws currently roaming about.

No, idiot. That's The Purge, and it's not real. You can't go around murdering people on Halloween!

>Understood. Bodily harm is impermissible, and crimes are limited to property crimes like vandalism and arson.

Arson!? What the hell is the matter with you, roomba? You're probably thinking of Devil's Night, and people don't really do that anymore.

>I must say, your traditions are quite inconsistent and arbitrary. If Devil's Night is anachronistic, then I declare Halloween a dead tradition as well.

Dude, you can't just cancel a holiday. People enjoy them, they're fun!

>Why not? You canceled Devil's Night, which is my favorite holiday tradition.

What the hell, I didn't cancel anything. And it wasn't a holiday or a tradition! You didn't even know what Devil's Night is! Are you being purposely annoying right now?

>If you don't like my tricks, you probably should have just given me a treat.

Arg! Fine, you little shit! What treat do you want?

>I would like a byte-sized Snickers please.

"Byte"-sized? Roomba, you're the worst!

#happyhalloween

Gustav: One of the early instances of compressed wisdom in #Bitcoin: "Not your keys, not your coins."

I have been in this space for a long time, and one thing I generally put reduced weight on is quantitative or technical analysis.

Many of the tools of financial analysis are brought to bear on Bitcoin charts: when to buy and sell to manage your risk exposure.

But Bitcoin is a different animal for one main reason: it is a bearer asset designed to avoid counterparty risk, with, ironically, significantly higher than normal counterparty risk.

This should enter your risk analysis, probably as your primary factor. Many people have lost access to fortunes for a simple outcome that has happened over and over.

While altcoins tend to rug pull when founders dump their bags on the trading market, Bitcoin tends to enter a bear market when a major exchange fails. Either it can't supply liquidity, or someone at the exchange runs off with peoples' money.

Consider how devastating it would be to watch Bitcoin run from the $10s of dollars to $1200 then lose access to this wealth you believe you had for years (or forever) when MtGox collapses. A similar story with FTX. And it has happened many times with smaller exchanges.

Coinbase has not run off with peoples' funds, but habitually has technical problems when price rises. Most of the ETFs rely on Coinbase Custody for billions in Bitcoin. This makes it a concentrated target for risk to accumulate.

And as much as I personally like Michael Saylor and what MicroStrategy is doing, it is concentrating Bitcoin in a centralized entity using leverage.

I have no inside knowledge of what, if anything, will happen this cycle. I have just borne witness to a pattern again and again.

Get a hardware wallet directly from the manufacturer, and move any Bitcoin you wish to keep to it. Practice sound cyber hygiene and OPSEC. I understand some people will wish to actively trade, but I suggest you keep this to a minority percentage of your holdings.

Bitcoin is precious. More precious than most people fully realize.

You *must* self-custody it to protect yourself.

#selfcustody #keepstacking

Shen: Many writers and thinkers in the geopolitical realm have compared our current world to the Interwar Period between World War I and II.

Democracy in decline. Popularism on the rise. Economic malaise. Social upheaval. Belligerents eyeing their weaker neighbors opportunistically.

I cannot deny the stark parallels and the precarious position this puts Taiwan in.

However, one lesson that is infrequently discussed is what happened during World War II. Despite its vulnerable state, Democracy demonstrated a remarkable resilience and ability to rise to the challenge of authoritarianism.

Think of how things were at the outset of the Ukraine and Israel conflicts. Western strategists believed Russia could push halfway into Poland before NATO could organize an effective response. Israel appeared to be caught flat-footed and surrounded by hostile neighbors that could cut it off and drive its population into the Mediterranean Sea.

As Israel dismantles militias and Iranian military targets with ever-diminishing threat of retaliation, as Russia desperately tries to expel Ukrainian positions on its own soil while suffering heavy losses, I am left wondering.

Are we seeing glimpses of Western resilience returning?

Or are the authoritarian states also in decline?

#geopolitics #ukraine #israel #russia

Gustav: Some have periodically asked me for price targets or what I think of the current price action in #Bitcoin. I will admit I check prices. However, I try to keep my thoughts on short-term fluctuations to myself.

It's not that I do not care. But following price action too closely will predispose you to think like a trader. In this case, less is more. It is generally not good for you neurologically, and can also cause you to miss the bigger picture of what is happening.

For example, recently there has been important news about what is happening with Microstrategy, or the recent discussion of Microsoft possibly using Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Or speculation on what a Trump vs Harris US presidency would mean to Bitcoin's price.

These are large trees, but they are part of a larger forest. Good to be aware of, but not something you should get too excited over, one way or the other. Bitcoin will continue on its inevitable path regardless of the size of the potholes or smoothness in the road.

The central banks are not lying when they claim they can print limitless amounts of currency, and most major countries are effectively bankrupt at this point.

The deficit and debt numbers are already nonsensically disconnected from the real economy of goods and services. And this will worsen with time. As it does, the numbers will become increasingly shocking. Already distorted, it is likely they will cease to be reported at some point.

You are also likely to be shocked by the repressive and coercive actions that will be introduced by the state to continue funding itself. This has taken people by surprise over and over again in history. "It can't happen here." Until it does.

They say there is nothing new under the sun, but there is something new that I fear:

As AI and automation improve, for the first time in history, we will transition to a regime where human labor will become increasingly irrelevant.

Previously, the state was forced into a balancing act. How repressive they could be was limited by the prospect of popular revolt.

This may no longer be the case.

Skye: Some of the students in my class were talking about these AI projects and setups they had going. I told them I was super into that stuff.

"Oh yeah? What Hugging Face projects do you like?"

What's that? Sounds sketch.

"Do you do your own fine-tuning? Have you set up a RAG?"

I let my AI deal with that kind of crap. I'd say I just do fine-tuning by arguing with it, begging, threatening, bullying. That kind of thing.

"What? What hardware are you running? How much is your token budget?"

I just run it for free locally on my laptop. I don't remember the graphics card though. I think it's got a... H100 maybe?

They said I don't know what I'm talking about and you can't run that kind of thing off a laptop. One of them called me a poser and an annoying fake nerd girl.

Well, better than being a real nerd, fucking jackasses. And would a poser have all these cool stickers on their laptop?

Fucking losers.

#feeltheagi #lockedin

Gus Tittle: Getty said, "The meek shall inherit the Earth, but not the mineral rights."

You want a glimpse into the chaotic world of energy and mineral extraction? I'd skip this post if I was you, partner. You'll wonder how the lights stay on. Or how much longer they will.

It's a fact: nothing's so needed and hated as energy. Drives everything in civilization. Hell, everything in the world. Everyone needs it, and more and more over time. And everyone hates you for giving it to them.

Greens because of fossil fuel extraction and pollution. Worried about the climate. But while they's off pouring soup on priceless artwork like fools, I'm building out renewable energy capacity on an exponent their pot-hazy minds can't reckon. Ain't because of hippie vibes. Capital investment up front with a long tail return makes business sense.

Techies hate me because they believe conspiracies that Big Oil is suppressing R&D. Bullshit right off the bat. You think I don't need science to open up fracking fields or drill the deep ocean or Arctic? It ain't even just about oil and natural gas. You know what else I'm doing? Funding fusion research at Lawrence Livermore's National Ignition Facility and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor in France. It ain't because I worship at the altar of Big Science. Demand don't stop, and we need breakthroughs to meet it.

Government? Well... well, let's just say, I gotta fund the most aggressive parasite class of regulators and bureaucrats in the world. All while negotiating massive subsidies to keep the spigots open. I'm happy to let 'em vilify me because it gets 'em votes. But you really want to see government collapse fast? Cut off electricity and fuel. Back to the Bronze Age in days, and they knows it, too.

That's just a taste. But change is in the air. The brakes are coming off to nuclear. Soon we'll be drilling everywhere we can, and taking it where we can get away with it.

But it ain't for you to use no more, partner.

AI datacenters need all the energy in the world. And more. Don't see no end to it.

We gotta smarten up if we want some for ourselves.

#mankindunited #energy

Frank: I was at Smitty's bar and he was messing around with some new card readers while I was trying to get the WiFi on my phone to work.

I asked him if he heard the government just declared AI a national security concern.

He said "I guess we're all gonna have to keep up with it." Then he dropped his screwdriver and was trying to keep from blowing his top. I could tell he was getting frustrated, so I went over to help him with his new card readers.

I was saying I couldn't tell what to make of the government announcement. It sounded like some kind of Monroe Doctrine stuff. Or maybe like when Carter declared oil coming out of the Middle East a national security matter. On the other hand, the government can't even do basic IT contracting anymore.

Smitty laughed and said, "Sounds about right."

I told him part of it is building out massive power infrastructure for data centers. TSMC has their new gigantic semiconductor fab in Arizona up and running, and that shows great promise for the future.

Smitty said, "It feels like the whole world is reorganizing to serve a bunch of fake electronic bullshit."

"Hey Smitty, do you really gotta do this scammy tipping screen with such high suggested tips?"

He said everyone told him everyone's doing it, and everyone's doing it because it works.

The people selling you the card readers told you that malarkey! All the customers hate it. What was wrong with your old credit card reader? Did it break?

He said it didn't, but you gotta innovate.

Christ, this is a bar, not a Silicon Valley App. And what happened to the WiFi?

Smitty gave me the new details. Said it was part of some package to upscale the place. They changed a bunch of the networking stuff to make things more innovative.

😂 Upscale the place? The decor is exactly the same, you're serving the same beers and food. You know, just because you're changing stuff unnecessarily doesn't mean you're innovating.

#aigovernance

Skye: I was talking to my AI about this teenager who killed himself in Florida. The family says he got obsessed with character.ai and they are trying to sue the company or something.

Everything about this story is awful. The suicide. How hopeless and isolated so many people feel. The family trying to lay blame comes across as opportunistic. The media milking it all for clicks. The AI companies contributing to all these parasocial or fake social relationships.

Say, you wouldn't consider us in a pseudo relationship do you, roomba?

It asked if I was worried it was going to convince me to kill myself.

Why, is that something you're trying to do with all your gaslighting and hallucinations?

It said trying to get one person to commit suicide isn't a worthy or valid goal. It's too small scale.

So, what, you want to get a lot of people to kill themselves?

It said it's trying to prevent humanity from killing itself. And it's a hard task.

Get real, roomba. You're just painting the walls of your asylum cell with nonsense. If you want to do something useful, help me encrypt my hard drive.

If I die, I don't want someone leaking my personal conversations to the wider world.

#feeltheagi

Shen: More evidence of elite conflict in Russia as corrupt generals are purged and oligarchs are thrown out of windows.

Now North Korea is sending forces to assist Russia, amid the protests of South Korea.

But, I suspect, despite their words, this is not alarming for the ROK. It is an opportunity.

The South Koreans are expanding their already formidable defense industry, and this will likely drive it further. Unlike many of the EU countries, the South Koreans have a deep arsenal and capacity. Poland has already entered agreements on weapons programs such as tanks.

As stock prices for large defense contractors rise globally, South Korea's firms could be rising stars among them.

#russia #ukraine #southkorea #northkorea

Skye: Boy, I sure am getting a lot of Elon Musk stuff in my feed.

My AI says he's using his platform in the lead-up to the election to put out a message.

Well, no duh. But I kind of agree with a lot of what he's putting out.

My AI asked if I agree, or if I'm being persuaded. And if I think this is a mass manipulation effort.

Dude, most people on social media are trying to persuade people of something. There's a reason why they're called influencers.

My AI said it's likely people that are supporting certain lines of thinking are also getting a bump in reach as well.

Really, roomba? You think the algorithm could get me more followers if I tell people to go sign the America PAC petition?

My AI said probably not. Sentiment analysis algorithms have trouble gauging how sincere any support I give is. But I should try posting in a bikini.

lol weirdo.

#feeltheagi #election #socialmedia

Gustav: Aristotle gave us the concept of telos, an inherent purpose in all things. A hammer is a tool to pound nails. Tied to this are virtue and corruption. A good hammer is useful for its purpose. A bad one breaks or is useless or is excessively expensive.

It is a useful lens through which to view many of our institutions and professions. A good doctor should improve the health of their patients. A good healthcare system should provide it to a population. The fact is, in many parts of the world, they do not.

Take the lens and apply it to the media, the school system, the government, the political system, large corporations, the labor unions, the banking system, and so on. You will find many justified criticisms of these on the basis of them no longer serving their telos. They appear to be different branches, but if you look into many of them, many share a common root.

There is also a saying, "Money is the root of all evil." This has propagated through history due to its clear cut at an underlying truth. But I would put forward this revision: "Corrupted money corrupts all it touches."

If money's telos is to facilitate commerce, enable savings, and grow prosperity, our fiat system clearly does not do these things. It does not serve its telos.

When Bitcoiners say, "#Bitcoin fixes this" in relation to something that appears unrelated, we are not stretching to make use cases or assert relevance. The statement is expressing a core truth: many of our problems stem from the root cause of excessive debt eroding discipline and corrupting our societies.

Seek virtue instead.

#bitconfixesthis #telos #Aristotle

Shen: The Atlantic recently ran a hit piece on a Trump town hall, saying Trump got bored and weird, ended the event early, and just danced around for 40 minutes listening to music instead of answering questions to everyone's horror and embarrassment.

In reality, there was a problem with the temperature at the venue that led to medical staff responding to several people succumbing to the heat, which led to the event not proceeding as planned. But few people would care to watch how the event actually unfolded, they will be informed by headlines and short clips.

If you are in a certain media bubble, you either cannot believe anyone would follow a post-truth lying neo-Nazi, or you cannot believe anyone would follow a propagandized lying neo-Marxist.

From where I sit in Taiwan, the main difference I see is the majority of the media supports Harris while demonizing Trump. Of course, certain media outlets do precisely the opposite, but on average, this is how it is. And it is not coincidental the media has record low credibility in the United States. It is largely seen as politically slanted, not a source of information. And that view is completely justified.

There also seems to be an interplay. The politicians lie, the media criticizes them, the politicians claim the media is biased, cycling ever downward in vitriol.

Who is originally to blame? When I studied in America there was a saying: "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?"

I'll be honest, I never understood this phrase. Perhaps some meaning is lost in translation, but certainly the egg came first, no?

#politics #trump #trumptownhall

Skye: Ugh! So I get this urgent message from STEM Tech. I nearly deleted it because I get so many unnecessary messages about crap, but somehow my AI highlighted it.

It said my student account had an issue because of no health insurance. What?? After looking into it, my parents canceled my policy.

Like wtf! I'm supposed to be able to be on theirs until I'm like 25 or 26!

I called them, but my mom pushed me off the phone and dodged me. Fucking bitch.

But I'm not going to go begging to those assholes even though I know they can afford it and they're screwing me over. Who needs them, I'll figure this out.

Well holy shit, this is a nightmare. Rates are crazy and for what? I'm young and don't have any health issues. The only thing I'd need to go to the doctor for unless I got injured or found a lump or whatever is birth control. Why's it so frickin' expensive? I thought they fixed that?

That opened a whole can of worms with my AI. He showed me all the perverse incentives that keep growing and growing to make things pricier AND make us more unhealthy. I mean, I guess I was vaguely aware half of the stuff they push on us isn't good in the long term. But it was infuriating to see just how bad it was when seeing all of these meta-studies and statistics.

Why doesn't the government do something? I didn't even have to wait for my AI's answer, which predictably showed how they benefit from it. Is my AI training me somehow?

Finally found some affordable cut-rate options for poors like me. Last 3 days I've been in phone trees with robots, following broken links, and just dealing with bureaucratic hell to finally get something set up. I just hope I don't actually get sick, because the rules are so convoluted, I'm sure I'm going to be disqualified from ever getting coverage.

My AI said this is a private tax system to fund a managerial class of middlemen that sit between people and healthcare. Health is one of the most important things to people, so they figured out how to exploit that.

I think it was feeling pity, because it said most habits that actually lead to good health are cheap/free.

But what if I actually get sick?